SPECIAL REPORT: Will The Fertilizer Shortage Create A Global Food Crisis? | Bruce Sherrick

Key Takeaways

• 30‑34% of global seaborne fertilizer passes through Hormuz.
• Immediate harvest risk limited; longer‑term supply chain concerns persist.
• Energy price spikes amplify fertilizer cost pressures.
• Stockpiles and alternative routes cushion short‑term shortages.
• Prolonged disruptions could trigger food‑price inflation and unrest.

Pulse Analysis

The Strait of Hormuz has long been a chokepoint for commodities, and fertilizer is no exception. Roughly one‑third of the world’s seaborne nitrogen, phosphate and potash shipments navigate this narrow waterway, linking major producers in the Middle East with grain‑growing regions in the United States, Europe and China. When the strait is blocked, shipping delays and rerouting increase freight costs and extend delivery times, directly affecting the timing of fertilizer application for spring‑planted cereals. For the Northern Hemisphere, which cultivates the bulk of the global food supply and houses 87 % of the world’s population, any interruption can reverberate through the entire agricultural value chain.

Bruce Sherrick, a leading agronomy professor at the University of Illinois, argues that the current closure will not cripple this year’s harvest because existing stockpiles and alternative ports—such as those in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean—provide a buffer. However, he warns that the price of natural gas, the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, has already surged due to constrained energy flows, pushing fertilizer prices to multi‑year highs. Higher input costs force farmers to trim application rates or switch to cheaper, less efficient products, which can depress yields and erode profit margins, especially for smallholders.

If the Hormuz impasse persists, the cumulative effect could be a gradual erosion of global food affordability. Persistent fertilizer scarcity tends to inflate grain prices, a dynamic that historically fuels social tension in vulnerable economies—a pattern reminiscent of the 2007‑08 food crisis that sparked protests across North Africa and the Middle East. Policymakers therefore face a dual challenge: securing diversified supply routes while investing in domestic fertilizer production and alternative nutrients such as bio‑fertilizers. Proactive measures can blunt price spikes, protect crop output, and reduce the risk of a new, agriculture‑driven wave of unrest.