California Almond Bearing Acreage Shrinks for the First Time in 30 Years

Why It Matters

The acreage contraction signals tightening margins for growers and could curb future supply, affecting global almond prices. Strong export demand, however, may offset some pressure, keeping the sector economically significant.

Key Takeaways

• Bearing almond acreage fell to 1.386 million acres, first decline since 1995
• Growers removed 47,588 acres this year, following 49,200 acres last season
• Rising labor, fertilizer and water costs squeeze almond profitability
• Sustainable Groundwater Management Act limits water, influencing planting decisions
• Export demand stays strong, supporting long‑term industry outlook

Pulse Analysis

California’s almond sector, long regarded as the world’s benchmark, is confronting its first bearing‑acreage decline in three decades. The Almond Board and Land IQ estimate 1.386 million acres for the 2026 crop, a modest 15,000‑acre dip that ends a streak of growth dating back to 1995. While total almond acreage has been shrinking for four consecutive years, the latest removals—nearly 48,000 acres—underscore a faster‑than‑expected retreat of mature orchards, a trend that could reshape the state’s agricultural landscape.

The underlying drivers are largely economic. Labor wages, fertilizer prices, and especially water costs have surged, eroding the profitability that once justified expansive planting. California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, now fully enforced, restricts water withdrawals in key almond‑growing basins, forcing growers to reconsider new plantings and, in many cases, to retire older trees. These pressures have also stalled the pipeline of younger, non‑bearing orchards, which fell to roughly 105,000 acres—half the level seen during the boom years—further limiting future production capacity.

Nevertheless, global demand for California almonds remains robust. Export markets continue to absorb more than 200 million pounds each month, and the industry’s share of worldwide supply stays near 80%. The Almond Board’s shift away from USDA’s Objective Measurement Report signals a move toward proprietary data, potentially altering how supply forecasts are generated. Investors and policymakers will watch closely to see whether strong export demand can offset the supply squeeze and sustain the sector’s long‑term growth trajectory.