Instacart Jumps 7% on Strong Results as CEO Calls Grocery Competition Fears 'Overblown'

Why It Matters

The earnings beat and bullish outlook reinforce Instacart’s competitive moat, reassuring investors amid a crowded grocery‑delivery landscape.

Key Takeaways

• Q4 revenue beat estimates, GTV up 14%.
• Orders hit 89.5 million, exceeding forecasts.
• Forecast GTV $10.13‑$10.28B, above StreetAccount.
• CEO dismisses competition fears as overblown.
• AI tools driving engagement and differentiation.

Pulse Analysis

Instacart’s latest earnings underscore how AI‑enabled features are reshaping the grocery‑delivery sector. By integrating predictive pricing and personalized recommendations, the platform has attracted both new shoppers and merchant partners, boosting order volume and average basket size. This technology push differentiates Instacart from rivals such as Amazon Fresh, Uber Eats, and DoorDash, which are also racing to embed AI into their logistics and pricing engines.

Financially, the company delivered a rare earnings beat in an otherwise tepid internet‑services quarter. Gross transaction value grew 14% year‑over‑year, and total orders topped 89.5 million, outpacing StreetAccount’s 87.8 million estimate. Guidance for full‑year GTV between $10.13 billion and $10.28 billion, along with adjusted EBITDA of $280‑$290 million, comfortably exceeds StreetAccount’s consensus, signaling strong demand elasticity and effective cost management.

For investors and industry observers, Instacart’s performance signals that the firm’s moat remains intact despite mounting competition. The CEO’s dismissal of “overblown” competition fears suggests confidence in the company’s ability to leverage AI for sustainable differentiation. As grocery retailers continue to experiment with direct‑to‑consumer models, Instacart’s data‑rich platform positions it to capture incremental market share, making it a bellwether for the broader online grocery ecosystem.

Instacart jumps 7% on strong results as CEO calls grocery competition fears 'overblown'

By Samantha Subin · Published Fri, Feb 13 2026 10:37 AM EST

Key Points

• Instacart topped fourth‑quarter estimates and issued strong guidance as new technology boosted engagement and brought more customers to the platform.

• CEO Chris Rogers called concerns that rising grocery competition will cut into Instacart’s business model “overblown.”

• Analysts at Bernstein called the report a “solid rebuttal” to competition and artificial‑intelligence fears.

Instacart’s stock surged more than 14% after the company’s robust results alleviated worries over mounting competitive pressures in the grocery‑delivery market.

During an earnings call with analysts, CEO Chris Rogers, who took the helm last year, called the concerns “overblown” and said the company monitors threats “extremely closely.”

“There is definitely a market for us here and we feel good about our points of differentiation,” he said.

Instacart is facing an increasingly competitive market as retailers like Amazon and food platforms such as Uber Eats and DoorDash aggressively scale in grocery delivery. At the same time, the company is investing in new technology and artificial‑intelligence tools to drive more customers and businesses to its platform.

Wall Street analysts viewed Instacart’s results as a wave of confidence for those worried about the company’s moat. Analysts at Bernstein called the report a “solid rebuttal” to competitive pressures and AI threats.

“The clean beat‑and‑raise has been rare this internet earnings cycle and CART stands out from that perspective,” wrote analysts at Barclays.

The San Francisco‑based company reported better‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter revenue and said gross transaction value (GTV) grew 14%, representing its strongest quarterly growth in three years. Orders totaled 89.5 million, topping a StreetAccount estimate of 87.8 million.

Instacart also issued an optimistic forecast, calling for GTV in the range of $10.13 billion to $10.28 billion, versus a $9.97 billion estimate from StreetAccount. The company expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $280 million to $290 million, versus $277 million expected.

Image credit: Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

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Related video: “Study finds Instacart uses AI pricing tools causing various prices for identical products.”