ACA: No Cement Consumption Growth in 2026

Why It Matters

The sustained drop in cement demand signals weaker construction activity, pressuring manufacturers’ revenues and reshaping investment priorities across the building materials sector. Emerging data‑center projects offer a new growth avenue that could offset traditional market weakness.

Key Takeaways

• Cement consumption projected at 97.5 mt in 2026, down from 107.1 mt in 2023
• No recession expected, yet economic uncertainty suppresses demand
• IIJA funding yields modest gains for water projects, limited road/bridge impact
• Single‑family starts may improve, but most regions lag 2005 housing peak
• Data‑center builds exceed 50% of office construction, led by Texas and Virginia

Pulse Analysis

The ACA’s latest outlook underscores a structural slowdown in U.S. cement usage, driven by macro‑level factors that extend beyond seasonal fluctuations. While the broader economy avoids a recession, elevated inflation and interest rates dampen both public and private construction spending. The lingering geopolitical tension from the Iran conflict adds an extra layer of uncertainty, curbing confidence among developers and material suppliers alike. As a result, the industry faces a prolonged contraction that challenges traditional growth models.

Public‑sector funding, particularly from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, has delivered only modest improvements. ACA analysts note that while water‑related projects have seen consistent year‑over‑year increases, road and bridge allocations remain below expectations, limiting the stimulus effect on cement demand. In the residential arena, single‑family home starts show tentative signs of recovery, yet nine Census Bureau regions still operate at less than half the activity levels recorded during the 2005 housing peak. This uneven rebound highlights the geographic disparity in construction health and suggests that nationwide demand recovery will be gradual.

Conversely, the data‑center boom is reshaping the material mix within non‑residential construction. For the first time, data‑center projects account for more than 50% of the office‑building category, driven by rapid digital infrastructure expansion. Texas and Virginia dominate the pipeline with over 130 projects each, outpacing traditional hubs such as Georgia and Ohio. This shift presents a strategic opportunity for cement producers to pivot toward high‑tech construction segments, potentially mitigating the impact of broader market declines. Stakeholders should monitor these trends closely as they will influence capacity planning, pricing strategies, and long‑term investment decisions.