Conifex Takes Mackenzie Mill Offline Again — 25M Board Feet Stripped

Why It Matters

The outage trims a significant volume from Western SPF supply, tightening a market already squeezed by construction slowdown and rising US duties, which could lift softwood prices and affect downstream manufacturers.

Key Takeaways

• Mackenzie mill offline 7 weeks, cutting 25M board feet.
• Fibre shortage, not demand, drives curtailment.
• Second shutdown in six months delays two‑shift target 2026.
• US countervailing and anti‑dumping duties pressure Canadian softwood exports.
• $19M CAD loan (~$14M USD) financed recent mill restart.

Pulse Analysis

Conifex’s latest curtailment underscores the fragility of the Western softwood lumber supply chain. While the broader North American housing market remains sluggish—driven by higher mortgage rates and a dip in new‑home starts—the primary bottleneck for Conifex is not demand but the scarcity of log inventory in the BC Interior. Seasonal logging break‑up, weather‑related delays, and limited fibre extraction have forced the company to pause production, stripping 25 million board feet of SPF from the market for nearly two months.

The timing of the shutdown is critical for price dynamics. With the United States imposing cumulative countervailing and anti‑dumping duties that now exceed 20 percent on Canadian softwood, any reduction in supply can quickly translate into higher export prices. Traders and downstream manufacturers are likely to see tighter inventories and a modest price premium for Western SPF, especially as the market anticipates a July restart. The curtailment also delays Conifex’s strategic goal of operating two shifts by late 2026, a plan that hinges on steady fibre flow and favorable duty structures.

Looking ahead, Conifex’s ability to secure additional log contracts and mitigate weather risks will dictate the pace of recovery. The earlier C$19 million (~US$14 million) loan that enabled the February restart demonstrates the company’s willingness to leverage financing to sustain operations. However, sustained duty pressures and a lingering construction slowdown could keep the softwood market volatile, prompting other Canadian producers to reassess inventory strategies and explore alternative markets beyond the United States.