Ukraine’s Timber Glut Hits 15,000m³ a Day as EU Demand Collapses

Why It Matters

The glut threatens revenue for Ukraine’s forestry sector and tests whether European buyers can absorb excess supply, while prolonged inventory may pressure prices and affect the country’s war‑funding strategy.

Key Takeaways

• State forest manager supplies >15,000 m³ daily, exceeding demand
• Warehouse inventories top 1.17 million m³, record high
• EU softwood imports falling due to tariffs, EUDR, weak construction
• Forests of Ukraine prioritises firewood for households and military
• Q3 2026 offer up 300,000 m³ above 2025, price unchanged

Pulse Analysis

Ukraine’s forestry output has surged despite the war, with the state‑run Forests of Ukraine harvesting 632,000 cubic metres more than a year ago and now delivering over 15,000 cubic metres daily. The aggressive logging pace compensates for lost acreage in Luhansk, Donetsk and other frontline regions, but it also creates a massive inventory backlog. Logistics bottlenecks, power outages and labor shortages further strain the supply chain, prompting the agency to re‑list unsold lots at lower prices to clear warehouse stock that now exceeds 1.17 million cubic metres.

Across the continent, European demand for Ukrainian softwood has evaporated. New tariffs, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) compliance costs, and a sluggish construction market have all contributed to a sharp decline in imports. Wood Central reports that EU softwood purchases are sliding, leaving Ukrainian exporters with limited outlets and forcing price concessions. The oversupply—estimated at 55,000 cubic metres per day versus a 40,000 cubic metre domestic consumption rate—has driven auction prices to remain flat despite inflationary pressures, eroding potential revenue for the war‑affected economy.

The persistent surplus carries strategic implications. Reduced export earnings could constrain the Ukrainian government’s ability to fund defense initiatives that rely on timber revenues, while domestic allocations to firewood for households and the armed forces underscore a policy shift toward social resilience. Looking ahead, the Q3 2026 offer of an additional 300,000 cubic metres will test whether EU buyers can absorb more volume once regulatory clarity improves and construction rebounds. Stakeholders may see further price adjustments, increased lot differentiation, or a pivot toward alternative markets to mitigate the glut’s economic impact.