10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Every New Bitcoin Bull Market Starts Slow

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin posted two months of positive returns, signaling early bull momentum
• ETF inflows accelerated, while funding rates sit at historic 4th percentile
• Options market shows caution; Ethereum signals slower upside
• Fed division, equity overboughtness, and Iran risk pose near‑term headwinds

Pulse Analysis

The latest weekly crypto briefing highlights a pivotal moment for Bitcoin as it moves past the early‑stage threshold of a new bull market. Two consecutive months of gains, combined with a funding rate that has fallen to the 4th percentile of historical levels, suggest that financing costs are low and speculative pressure is easing. Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds have accelerated, reflecting renewed institutional appetite and providing a liquidity cushion that could sustain higher price levels.

Despite the positive on‑chain data, the derivatives market paints a more guarded picture. Options pricing indicates that traders are pricing in a modest upside, especially for Ethereum, which is showing a more subdued trajectory. This divergence underscores the importance of monitoring both spot and derivatives signals to gauge market sentiment accurately. Investors should watch the implied volatility curve and open interest trends, as they often precede shifts in price momentum.

Macro dynamics add another layer of complexity. A divided Federal Reserve, lingering equity market overvaluation, and resurfacing geopolitical tension surrounding Iran create near‑term uncertainty that could stall the rally. Yet, two structural catalysts—such as the maturation of crypto‑friendly regulatory frameworks and the expanding role of blockchain in traditional finance—could reshape the investment landscape, unlocking new capital flows. For professionals, the key is to balance the bullish technical indicators with these broader risks, positioning portfolios to capture upside while preserving downside protection.