In this article…

Good morning. Bitcoin continues to rhyme heavy with the 2021 cycle, and it’s absolutely uncanny. See our Chart of the Day for the details. Then, your Bitcoin Trade of the Day offers a dynamic long / short setup that follows nicely from the larger macro picture. All of that, plus…

• Cathie Wood’s ARK bought the dip.

• Coinbase’s System Update 2025 happens tomorrow.

• And your Alpha Leaks.

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Chart of the Day

We’ve discussed ad nauseum the 50‑week SMA, what it means in terms of the 4‑year cycle, and how we’re currently rhyming with the last cycle in regards to this moving average. However, let’s explore one more similarity that appears to be forming on the chart right now.

Notice last cycle that after Bitcoin definitively lost the 50‑week SMA, Bitcoin (1) formed a bear flag, and (2) grinded within that bear flag for 12 weeks, until it retested the 50‑week SMA.

Now look at our current price action. We’ve definitively lost the 50‑week SMA, and it appears that Bitcoin (1) is forming a bear flag right now, and (2) we’re currently five weeks into this bear‑flag formation.

Therefore, if we continue to rhyme heavily with last cycle, then we should expect a retest of the 50‑week SMA at $101 K around late January 2026.

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Trade of the Day

Bitcoin is your Trade of the Day, and it’s a continuation of the topic we just discussed above. Now what we’re going to discuss is dynamic, and needs to be monitored, but you got this.

First, understand that Bitcoin had been in a rising‑wedge pattern, and that rising wedge broke down yesterday. Now second, the new support from yesterday’s close and today’s wick lows indicate that the rising wedge might be transitioning into a bear flag. This transition is not uncommon.

Therefore, here’s the setup:

1. Go long with entries near the bear‑flag’s support line around $85.3 K.

2. If prices keep breaking down, you can flip short around $84.5 K – $84.8 K. A decisive break below that range would invalidate the bear‑flag’s structure and open the door to significantly lower prices.

So basically, if you can keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s current price action here, this setup offers a favorable risk‑to‑reward for longs near support, with a clear invalidation for flipping short.

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Alpha Leaks

• Coinbase (COIN, Stocks) is hosting its “System Update 2025” showcase tomorrow.

• Jupiter (JUP, Crypto) is set to launch its native stablecoin – JupUSD – next week (built in partnership with Ethena).

• LIGHTER (Crypto) has been added to Coinbase’s listing roadmap; the coin may launch in the next two weeks.

• Micron Technology (MU, Stocks) is reporting its Q1 2026 fiscal earnings tomorrow after market close. Consensus estimates: $12.5 – $12.6 B in revenue.

• Synthetix (SNX, Crypto) is launching its new perps DEX on Ethereum tomorrow.

• Vertiv Holdings (VRT, Stocks) announced a 67 % increase in its quarterly dividend, paid this Thursday.

• Western Digital (WDC, Stocks) is one of six companies to be added to the Nasdaq 100 between now and Monday, December 22 (its AI‑driven data‑storage business could benefit).

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News Roundup

Cathie Wood’s ARK Buys the Dip

ARK Invest added almost $60 M in exposure across several crypto‑related stocks on Monday. The largest purchase was $17 M in BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), followed by $16.3 M in Coinbase (COIN). Other purchases included Circle (CRCL), CoreWeave (CRWV), Block (XYZ), and Bullish (BLSH). ARK also bought $1.2 M of its own spot Bitcoin ETF.

All the stocks mentioned closed lower on Monday (e.g., BMNR ‑11.2 %, COIN ‑6.4 %). The purchases fit ARK’s long‑standing pattern of accumulating during drawdowns. ARK already holds sizable positions in BitMine ($275 M), Coinbase ($609 M) and Circle ($323 M).

ARK’s latest base‑case price prediction for Bitcoin is $700 K – $1.2 M by 2030.

Coinbase’s “System Update 2025” Happens Tomorrow

Coinbase will host its “System Update 2025” showcase tomorrow at 2:00 PM PT (live‑streamed on YouTube and X). Expected announcements include:

• Regulated prediction markets via a partnership with Kalshi.

• Tokenized stocks and other real‑world assets.

• On‑chain AI agent products.

• An official Base L2 native token (speculative).

Coinbase is down roughly 43 % since its summer highs of $450 (currently around $250). Watch for a new narrative forming around its long‑term growth potential.

Nasdaq to Start 23‑Hour Trading

Nasdaq has filed with the SEC to extend trading hours for stocks to 23 hours a day, five days a week (4 AM – 8 PM ET, pause 1 hour, then 9 PM – 4 AM ET). The change aims to accommodate global investors, especially in Asia, and reflects the influence of 24/7 crypto trading on traditional exchanges. Extended hours would make crypto‑related stocks (e.g., COIN, HOOD, MSTR) more accessible to international traders.

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Degen Play of the Day

XRP is the DEGEN Play of the Day. It remains jammed at horizontal support with sharp descending resistance.

• Short scenario: A breakdown below $1.80 could trigger a steep decline.

• Long scenario: A breakout above the descending resistance at $2.07 could spark a rapid rally, possibly aided by “Brad Garlichouse”‑style pumps.

Both directions present high‑risk, high‑reward opportunities; stay alert.

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