10-Year Bitcoin Model Approves Buying BTC at $100K Since Time Does ‘the Heavy Lifting’

Why It Matters

The findings imply that Bitcoin may deliver substantial long‑term gains even for investors who miss the optimal entry point, and the current liquidity surplus could further boost its upside, making the asset attractive for risk‑averse, long‑horizon investors.

Summary

A 10‑year power‑law model of Bitcoin, cited by researcher Sminston With, shows that a $100,000 investment would yield roughly 300% returns over a decade regardless of whether the entry price is 20% above, at, or below the current $94,000 level, even after withdrawing 10% of holdings each year. The model’s three exit scenarios—selling at the median price, 20% above, or 20% below—still produce final portfolio values between $924,000 and $1.47 million. The analysis is reinforced by a macro view that global liquidity now stands at $113 trillion, about $7 trillion higher than the previous Bitcoin cycle, creating a deep liquidity‑price gap that suggests Bitcoin is undervalued, with a fair‑value estimate near $170,000. The combination of robust long‑term returns and a favorable liquidity backdrop underpins the argument that time, not timing, should drive Bitcoin investment decisions.