5 Clear Signals that Will Prove if the Bitcoin Bull Run Is Still Alive

Why It Matters

ETF flow dynamics are the most immediate driver of spot Bitcoin demand, so the shift to net redemptions signals weakening institutional support and could dampen broader market sentiment and price recovery.

Summary

Bitcoin slipped below the $106,400 pivot as spot ETF redemptions surged, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone withdrawing $714.8 million over four days, turning a key source of daily demand into supply. The decline coincided with a cooled CME three‑month futures basis (4‑5% annualized), softer or negative perpetual funding, and a firmer U.S. dollar that tightens liquidity. The article outlines five concrete signals—ETF and fund flows, CME basis and funding, macro liquidity metrics, and mining hashprice trends—to gauge whether the Bitcoin bull run remains alive, concluding that without renewed multi‑day net creations and a softer dollar, the market is in a distribution‑and‑digest phase around $100k‑$106k.