Asia Morning Briefing: After CZ’s Pardon, Odds Rise for Sam Bankman-Fried’s Second Chance

Why It Matters

The developments underscore growing political and market influence over crypto’s regulatory and reputational landscape, raising stakes for legal precedents, investor sentiment, and industry valuations if a surprise clemency occurs.

Summary

Odds of a presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman‑Fried have ticked up after Donald Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng “CZ,” with prediction markets boosting SBF’s chances to about 12% on Polymarket and 16% on Kalshi. The move has coincided with a broader crypto rally—Bitcoin rose 2.7% to roughly $110,700 and Ether trades near $3,850—while gold has surged almost 50% this year to about $4,126 amid geopolitical and central‑bank demand, with a $4,400 2026 forecast. The developments underscore growing political and market influence over crypto’s regulatory and reputational landscape, raising stakes for legal precedents, investor sentiment, and industry valuations if a surprise clemency occurs.