Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Rebounds as Polymarket Traders Bet U.S. Shutdown Will End Within Days

Why It Matters

The news illustrates how U.S. political outcomes can rapidly restore liquidity and confidence in crypto markets, while regulatory timelines for crypto products like ETFs continue to temper optimism. It signals both a short‑term boost for risk assets and a lingering hurdle for broader institutional adoption of digital assets.

Summary

Bitcoin surged 4.2% to $106,269 and Ethereum jumped 7.4% to $3,643 after a bipartisan Senate funding deal raised odds that the U.S. government shutdown will end by mid‑week, according to Polymarket. The market’s perception of a shutdown resolution flipped from a 63% chance of a prolonged closure to a strong belief in a November 12 reopening, lifting risk sentiment across equities and crypto. While the political relief spurred the rally, traders remain skeptical that the SEC will approve a Cardano ETF before year‑end, with odds falling from 90% to 38% in a month. The shift marks one of the sharpest sentiment reversals of the year, underscoring the sensitivity of digital assets to U.S. fiscal policy.