Bitcoin Risks Fourth Straight Monthly Loss, a Streak Not Seen Since 2018

Why It Matters

A prolonged downtrend could dampen investor confidence and liquidity across the crypto market, while options positioning may create short‑term price pressure toward the max‑pain level.

Key Takeaways

• Four-month decline rare since 2018‑19.
• Bitcoin down ~36% since October peak.
• January options expiry holds $8.5 billion open interest.
• $100k call option notional near $900 million.
• Max‑pain price sits around $90,000.

Pulse Analysis

The current four‑month losing streak places Bitcoin in uncharted territory for the digital‑asset class. Since October, the leading cryptocurrency has shed roughly a third of its value, erasing gains that had propelled it to an all‑time high. Historical data shows that even the severe 2022 bear market never produced more than three consecutive negative months, underscoring the rarity of today’s trajectory. Market participants are closely watching whether the price can stabilize or if the decline will extend into February, as prolonged weakness could trigger margin calls, reduce retail participation, and pressure institutional allocations.

Deribit’s options data adds a nuanced layer to the price outlook. With $8.5 billion of open interest set to expire on Jan 30, the market is heavily weighted toward a potential rebound at the $100,000 strike, where the notional value approaches $900 million. The concept of max‑pain—here estimated near $90,000—suggests that a concentration of contracts will become worthless unless the spot price gravitates toward that level. Traders often adjust positions ahead of expiry, creating a gravitational pull that can temporarily lift or suppress the underlying asset, making the final week of January a critical window for price action.

Looking ahead, the interplay between the bearish streak and bullish options positioning could produce heightened volatility. If Bitcoin breaches the max‑pain threshold, it may restore some confidence and attract fresh capital, potentially reigniting a short‑term rally. Conversely, a failure to break above $90,000 could reinforce the downtrend, prompting risk‑off behavior and further pressure on related crypto assets. Stakeholders—from retail investors to institutional funds—should monitor both on‑chain metrics and derivatives markets to gauge momentum and adjust exposure accordingly.