Bitcoin’s $60K Crash May Mark Halfway Point of Bear Market: Kaiko

Why It Matters

The correction may signal a pivotal shift in the crypto market cycle, influencing institutional allocation and retail sentiment across the broader digital‑asset ecosystem.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin dropped 32% to $59,930, lowest since Oct 2024
• Kaiko flags this as halfway point of 12‑month bear market
• Spot trading volume fell 30% to $700 billion across top exchanges
• Futures open interest down 14%, showing market deleveraging
• Analysts warn bottom may be $40‑50k, deeper retracement expected

Pulse Analysis

The latest Bitcoin dip arrives at a historically significant juncture. After the 2024 halving, the cryptocurrency surged to a record $126,000, but the recent 32% slide to just under $60,000 suggests the market may be transitioning from post‑halving euphoria to a more disciplined bear phase. Kaiko’s research ties this move to the four‑year halving cycle, noting that the price now hovers near the long‑term 200‑week moving average—a technical level that has historically acted as support during previous downturns.

On‑chain metrics reinforce the narrative of a market in correction. Aggregate spot trading volume across the ten largest centralized exchanges contracted from roughly $1 trillion in October to $700 billion, a 30% reduction that hints at waning liquidity and investor caution. Simultaneously, open interest in Bitcoin and Ether futures fell 14% to $25 billion, reflecting deleveraging as traders unwind leveraged positions. These data points, combined with oversold RSI readings, suggest that risk‑averse participants are recalibrating exposure, potentially setting the stage for a more measured accumulation period later in the year.

Future price direction remains contested. Some analysts view the $60,000 level as a local bottom, citing record‑low sentiment indices and historically extreme RSI values. Others, referencing deeper historical retracements of 60‑68%, project a bottom nearer $40,000‑$50,000 before a new upward swing aligns with the next halving cycle. Investors should monitor volume trends, futures positioning, and macro‑economic cues to gauge whether the market is merely pausing or entering a more prolonged correction, as the outcome will shape capital flows across the broader crypto landscape.