Does Bitcoin Power Law Model Still Work in 2025 After S2F Failed?

Why It Matters

By contrast, PlanB’s Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) forecast missed its 2021 targets, prompting analysts to favor the power‑law framework for its broader range‑based outlook.

Summary

The live Bitcoin power‑law channel, built on a log‑log regression of price versus days since genesis, places spot BTC around $109,700—about 20% below its fair‑value estimate of $136,100 and well above the model’s floor near $48,300. Recent ETF activity, including a record $5.95 billion inflow in early October 2025 followed by volatile outflows, is pushing the price toward the channel’s mid‑zone rather than its historical extremes. The model’s upper rail sits near $491,800, while the lower rail provides a long‑term support floor, both rising over time as the exponent compounds. By contrast, PlanB’s Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) forecast missed its 2021 targets, prompting analysts to favor the power‑law framework for its broader range‑based outlook.