Inflation to Set up Bitcoin Melt-Up as Rates to Fall to 2.75% by Next October

Why It Matters

That easing pathway, if realized, would lower real yields and—combined with episodic ETF inflows that recently sent record weekly crypto inflows—create a constructive backdrop for another Bitcoin rally; conversely, stalled disinflation would keep rates and the dollar firmer and cap crypto upside.

Summary

US headline and core CPI both printed 3.0% year‑over‑year in September, with gasoline the main monthly driver, and markets still price a 25‑bp Fed cut next week and a glide of policy to roughly 3.0% by October 2026. Futures and street forecasts (Goldman, FedWatch) imply multiple cuts in 2025–26 to a 2.75%–3.25% range, though rule‑based models and sticky core inflation present a hawkish upside risk. That easing pathway, if realized, would lower real yields and—combined with episodic ETF inflows that recently sent record weekly crypto inflows—create a constructive backdrop for another Bitcoin rally; conversely, stalled disinflation would keep rates and the dollar firmer and cap crypto upside.