JPMorgan Warns MSCI Decision Could Force Strategy Out of Top Equity Indices

Why It Matters

Index exclusion would force billions of passive capital out of MicroStrategy, undermining its market valuation and limiting access to equity and debt financing, which could reshape how digital‑asset‑heavy firms are treated by mainstream benchmarks.

Summary

JPMorgan warned that MSCI’s upcoming Jan. 15 ruling on MicroStrategy (MSTR) could strip the company from major equity benchmarks such as the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA and MSCI World. The bank estimates that removal could trigger $2.8 billion in passive outflows, rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit, jeopardizing the firm’s valuation, liquidity and ability to raise capital. The recent share decline is attributed more to index‑exclusion risk than to Bitcoin price weakness, as roughly $9 billion of MicroStrategy’s $59 billion market cap is held in passive funds that track these indices. Pre‑market trading showed the stock up 3.5% at about $193.