Metric Suggests Bitcoin Has Been in a Bear Market for 2 Months

Why It Matters

Confirming a bear market forces investors to rethink 2026 growth expectations and adjust risk exposure, while rising institutional buying may temper price declines and shape the recovery path.

Key Takeaways

• Bull Score Index turned bearish early November.
• One‑year moving average breach confirms bear market.
• Projected bottom near $56k‑$60k within next year.
• Drawdown ~55% less severe than prior cycles.
• Institutional accumulation stabilizes market despite lower prices.

Pulse Analysis

The Bull Score Index, a composite of network activity, investor profitability, demand and liquidity, shifted into bearish territory in early November, signaling a broader market slowdown. Coupled with Bitcoin’s price slipping beneath its one‑year moving average—a classic long‑term trend indicator—these metrics provide a data‑driven confirmation that the crypto giant has entered a bear phase. Analysts like Moreno rely on such quantitative tools to move beyond sentiment and gauge structural shifts in market health.

Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have featured deep drawdowns, often exceeding 70% from peak levels. This cycle’s projected 55% correction to a $56,000‑$60,000 range is comparatively modest, reflecting a more measured decline. Moreno points to the realized price—the average cost basis of existing holders—as a natural floor, echoing patterns from prior downturns where price gravitated toward that benchmark before rebounding. The less aggressive pullback suggests that while downside risk remains, the market may avoid the prolonged devastation seen in 2022.

A notable differentiator this time is the growing presence of institutional capital. Asset managers, ETFs and corporate treasuries are accumulating Bitcoin more steadily, reducing the volatility that typically amplifies bear‑market pain. This institutional layer, combined with a broader pool of retail participants, creates a more resilient demand base. For investors, the implication is a potentially smoother recovery trajectory, though vigilance remains essential as price action continues to test key technical thresholds.