Jan 15, 2026, 3:14 p.m.

Strategy’s (MSTR) bold bitcoin BTC $96,212.96 treasury strategy is facing a modest reassessment from bullish TD Cowen following the stock’s roughly 66% decline in the last half of 2025.

Analyst Lance Vitanza trimmed his 12‑month price outlook on MSTR to $440 from $500, which would still represent about 150% upside from the current level of roughly $175.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

Taking note of Strategy's recent aggressive capital‑raising efforts, Vitanza said the Michael Saylor‑led company is continuing to lean into bitcoin accumulation during what he calls a “temporary depression” in the cryptocurrency’s price.

Vitanza now expects the firm’s bitcoin holdings to grow by 155,000 coins this year, up from his prior estimate of 90,000 and taking the MSTR stack to above 800,000 BTC. The so‑called bitcoin yield generated on those holdings, though, is now projected to be lower thanks to recent common‑stock issuance at a negligible premium to net asset value.

Vitanza now models a 7.1% BTC Yield, down from his prior estimate of 8.8% and compared to the 22.8% achieved in 2025. His expected bitcoin dollar gain for 2026 is now seen at $9.4 billion against $6.3 billion previously.

Vitanza continues to view MSTR as an effective proxy for bitcoin exposure, particularly for investors with a long‑term view. He sees bitcoin’s price climbing to $177,000 by the end of 2026 and $226,000 by the end of 2027.

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