One trader went against the current trend of low chances for a strike tonight by placing the new $40,000 bet.

Jan 15, 2026, 1:14 a.m.

A brand new account on crypto predictions market provider Polymarket put $40,000 into a bet that the U.S. will strike Iran by the end of January 14.

The Pentagon is currently weighing its options on how to strike Iran, with preparation underway on a possible military intervention in the coming hours or days, and Iran is closing its airspace to all commercial traffic.

Bettors on Polymarket believe a possible strike will come later rather than sooner, with market consensus forming that it will occur by the end of the month, or at the latest by June 30. An NBC article on Wednesday evening suggested that a strike may not be imminent.

(Polymarket)

However, one trader went against the grain and placed a $40,000 bet on the strike occurring on Jan. 14, funding the trade on the same day.

According to data curated by Polymarket Analytics, a trader going by the handle “mutualdelta” deposited $40,000 into a Polymarket wallet and took out a single position, betting on the strike occurring on January 14.

The market currently assigns a 9 % chance of a strike occurring, and the bet is down over $20,000 as of press time. If a strike is confirmed before midnight Eastern Time, however, the bettor will win the funds in the contract.

Broadly speaking, the market is confident that some sort of military intervention will occur in the theater during the first half of the year, but bettors are less certain about the timing.

By late evening Jan. 14 U.S. time, the betting market was giving a 65 % chance a strike would occur by the end of the month and a 74 % chance it would happen by June 30.

Polymarket drew scrutiny earlier this month after a single bettor netted $400,000 placing a bet that the U.S. would conduct a military action in Venezuela just hours before the action to kidnap Nicolás Maduro, the country's leader, commenced.