Odds of December Rate Cut Back Above 70%: Are Bitcoin Traders Convinced This Changes Things?

Why It Matters

A higher likelihood of a December rate cut could lower financing costs and improve risk appetite, potentially lifting Bitcoin and other crypto assets, while also influencing broader equity and bond markets.

Summary

The CME FedWatch tool now shows better than a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at the Dec. 9‑10 meeting, moving the target range to 3.50%‑3.75% from 3.75%‑4.00%. This marks a sharp reversal from the previous day’s sentiment after New York Fed President John Williams suggested the Fed could still hold rates steady. The heightened cut odds have reignited speculation among Bitcoin traders about whether a lower‑rate environment will boost crypto demand. Market participants are watching price action for signs that the rate‑cut narrative is being priced into digital‑asset markets.