Prediction Markets Say U.S. Government Shutdown Days From Ending as Health Care Fight Looms

Why It Matters

An imminent shutdown resolution would restore federal services and avert further economic disruption, while the unresolved ACA subsidy issue and looming midterms could shape the political landscape and fiscal policy for the coming year.

Summary

Prediction markets are betting a 96% chance that the record‑long U.S. government shutdown will end between Nov. 12‑15, after the Senate passed a bipartisan funding bill that restores federal operations but leaves ACA subsidy extensions unresolved. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi see the shutdown ending within days, contingent on a House vote and presidential signature. The deal also postpones a decisive vote on Affordable Care Act subsidies to December, keeping political pressure on House Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Meanwhile, market odds suggest a split outcome in the 2026 midterms, with Republicans holding the Senate but losing the House at 44% probability.