This Metric Suggests Bitcoin's Late November Plunge Was the Bottom and Major Upside Lies Ahead

Why It Matters

The profit‑loss ratio has reliably signaled Bitcoin’s bear‑market lows, so its current level points to a potential price breakout, influencing investor positioning and market sentiment.

Key Takeaways

• Ratio dropped to 0.013 during November $80k dip.
• Historical bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, 2022 matched this level.
• Short‑term holder loss peaked at 2.45 million BTC.
• Ratio recovered to ~0.5 as price rose above $90k.
• Ratio below 0.5% hints at further upside potential.

Pulse Analysis

The short‑term holder profit‑loss ratio, a metric pioneered by Glassnode, compares the BTC supply held for under 155 days that is in profit versus that in loss. When the ratio collapses toward zero, it reflects overwhelming short‑term pessimism, a condition that historically precedes market reversals. The November 2025 trough saw the ratio hit 0.013, a level previously associated with decisive bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022, making it a valuable contrarian indicator for traders seeking early entry points.

In the weeks following the November dip, Bitcoin rebounded sharply, lifting the ratio to roughly 0.5. This recovery signals that short‑term holders are increasingly exiting loss positions and moving into profit, a shift that often fuels further buying pressure. The surge in short‑term holder profit supply to 850,000 BTC, alongside a decline in loss‑side holdings to 1.9 million BTC, underscores a strengthening market foundation. Analysts interpret a ratio approaching 1 as a catalyst for sustained upward momentum, suggesting that Bitcoin could experience another multi‑month rally if the trend holds.

While the metric offers a compelling bullish narrative, investors should weigh it against broader macro factors such as regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and global monetary policy. The crypto market remains sensitive to external shocks, and a sudden spike in short‑term loss positions could reverse sentiment quickly. Nonetheless, the current sub‑0.5% reading provides a data‑driven rationale for optimism, positioning Bitcoin for potential upside that could attract both retail and institutional capital in the coming quarters.