Wells Fargo Sees ‘YOLO’ Trade Driving $150B Into Bitcoin and Risk Assets

Why It Matters

The potential $150 billion inflow could reignite retail speculation, reshaping risk dynamics across both crypto and equity markets. Investors and regulators must prepare for heightened volatility and shifting capital allocations.

Key Takeaways

• $150 B could flow into equities, Bitcoin by March.
• High‑income taxpayers drive retail “YOLO” speculation surge.
• Smart‑money traders net short Bitcoin, expecting downside.
• Whales accumulated $41.9 M spot Ether last week.
• Bitcoin inflow hinges on retail sentiment and momentum.

Pulse Analysis

The United States is poised for an unusually large wave of tax refunds in 2026, a consequence of the One Big Beautiful Bill that lowered federal spending. Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon projects that as much as $150 billion of this excess cash could be redeployed into risk‑on assets—chiefly equities and Bitcoin—by the end of March. He attributes the expected surge to a revival of the “YOLO” trade, a term popular among retail investors who chase high‑growth, high‑volatility positions after a period of market caution.

Retail appetite, however, remains tethered to sentiment. Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard warns that Bitcoin inflows will only materialize if positive price momentum convinces traders that the crypto market is recovering. Meanwhile, smart‑money data from the Hyperliquid exchange shows a net short position of roughly $107 million on Bitcoin, indicating that professional traders anticipate a near‑term correction. In contrast, large‑scale “whale” wallets have quietly added $41.9 million of spot Ether over the past week, suggesting a divergent view of the blockchain’s longer‑term upside.

The convergence of a massive fiscal windfall and a renewed YOLO mindset could inject volatility into both traditional and digital markets. Asset managers may need to recalibrate risk models to accommodate sudden inflows, while regulators watch for heightened speculative activity that could amplify price swings in crypto. For high‑income investors, the choice between equities such as Boeing or Robinhood and Bitcoin will hinge on perceived risk‑adjusted returns, making portfolio diversification more critical than ever. Ultimately, the $150 billion estimate underscores how fiscal policy can reshape retail trading dynamics across asset classes.

Wells Fargo sees ‘YOLO’ trade driving $150B into Bitcoin and risk assets

Written by Zoltan Vardai, Staff Writer · Reviewed by Bryan O'Shea, Staff Editor · Published 4 minutes ago

A Wells Fargo strategist says bigger US tax refunds could revive retail risk‑taking by late March, potentially sending fresh cash into Bitcoin and momentum stocks.

US tax filers may see larger refunds in 2026 compared to previous years, a development one Wall Street strategist says may boost risk appetite for digital assets and tech stocks preferred among retail investors.

In a note cited by CNBC, Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon said the coming refund wave could help bring back the so‑called “YOLO” trade, with as much as $150 billion potentially flowing into equities and Bitcoin by the end of March. Kwon said the extra cash could be most visible among higher‑income consumers.

“Speculation picks up with bigger savings…we expect YOLO to return,” wrote Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon in a Sunday note seen by news outlet CNBC. “Additional savings from tax returns, especially for the high‑income consumer will flow back into equities, in our view,” he added.

Kwon said some of that liquidity could move into Bitcoin and into stocks popular with retail traders, including Robinhood and Boeing.

Cointelegraph contacted Wells Fargo for details on the assumptions behind the $150 billion estimate and how much of that total the bank expects could go to digital assets, but had not received a response by publication time.

Bitcoin demand depends on sentiment

While some of the taxpayer funds may flow into Bitcoin and digital assets, it’s important to consider the higher inflation and consumer spending compared to the period during the Covid‑19 pandemic, Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph:

“If sentiment starts to come around and retail sees positive upwards momentum in crypto assets, I see that as increasing the likelihood of funds flowing in this direction.”

Conversely, retail investors may opt for other assets with “higher momentum and social stickiness,” if digital‑asset sentiment doesn’t improve in the near term, he said.

The larger tax returns are due to the passage of US President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which included numerous favorable provisions for 2025 tax filings. Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025, saying it would cut as much as $1.6 trillion in federal spending.

Smart money bets on crypto market downside as whales quietly accumulate

Meanwhile, the whales, or large investors, continue their quiet spot accumulation for the leading cryptocurrencies, while the most profitable traders by returns, tracked as “smart money,” are betting on more crypto market downside.

Smart‑money trader positions through the Hyperliquid exchange, top tokens. (Source: Nansen)

Smart‑money traders were net short on Bitcoin for a cumulative $107 million, along with most of the leading cryptocurrencies excluding Avalanche (AVAX), according to crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

However, whales have acquired over $41.9 million worth of spot Ether (ETH) tokens across 22 wallets during the past week, marking a 1.7‑fold increase in the spot purchases of this cohort.

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Tags: #Nansen, #Cryptocurrency Investment, #Stock Investment, #WellsFargo, #DonaldTrump, #Predictions, #Bitcoin Price, #Retail, #Taxes, #Cryptocurrencies, #Bitcoin