Worst Uptober Ever? Bitcoin Price Risks First ‘Red’ October in Years

Why It Matters

The unfolding move matters for momentum in the current bull market and for traders positioning ahead of what could be a decisive macro policy signal.

Summary

Bitcoin is at risk of logging its first negative October in more than a decade, trading narrowly between roughly $107,000 and $111,500 and needing only a 4% monthly decline to become its worst October since 2013. Historically October has averaged about a 20% gain (which would imply a $130,000 level), and previous bull years saw at least 40% upside, highlighting how weak 2025’s Uptober has been so far. Analysts note much of October’s upside typically occurs in the month’s second half, and the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 29 meeting—when it may signal an end to quantitative tightening—could be a catalyst for a rebound. The unfolding move matters for momentum in the current bull market and for traders positioning ahead of what could be a decisive macro policy signal.