Will Bitcoin Ever Fall Below $100K Again?

The episode opens with a macro‑focused lens on the week ahead: a dovish Federal Reserve outlook, anticipated rate cuts, and a Trump‑Xi summit that could ease trade tensions. Analysts link these developments to Bitcoin’s price trajectory, noting that a smooth Fed meeting and a de‑escalated trade war could help keep Bitcoin above the $100,000 threshold. Simultaneously, a $2 billion outflow from U.S. gold ETFs creates a potential tailwind for Bitcoin, as capital may rotate into newly approved Bitcoin ETFs, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

Jeff Kendrick of Standard Chartered argues that the traditional four‑year halving cycle may be losing relevance, with ETF inflows now driving price action more than supply‑side dynamics. He points to the upcoming tech earnings season—Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon—as a catalyst for a risk‑on environment that could lift crypto assets. Meanwhile, crypto‑focused treasury companies like ETHZilla are liquidating holdings, sparking short‑term volatility but unlikely to derail the broader market. MicroStrategy’s recent B‑minus credit rating underscores the tension between high‑risk Bitcoin‑backed debt and institutional financing constraints, yet the firm’s premium stock price suggests continued investor confidence.

Institutional momentum is evident in the launch of multiple crypto ETFs, including Solana and Litecoin funds, and aggressive fee structures that aim to capture market share. Coinbase’s partnerships with Apollo Global Management and Citi signal a maturing stablecoin ecosystem, offering credit services and on‑chain payment infrastructure to traditional finance players. These developments, combined with the regulatory backdrop of a stalled crypto market‑structure bill, paint a picture of a market poised for growth if macro conditions stay favorable, while also highlighting the delicate balance between innovation and policy uncertainty.