Anthony Sassano on Why This Cycle Isn’t Playing Out Like the Last Ones
Why It Matters
Understanding that the classic four‑year crypto cycle may be obsolete reshapes how investors price risk and allocate capital, while Ethereum’s strategic positioning and upcoming upgrades could drive the next wave of institutional adoption and market growth.
Summary
The Bankless Weekly episode features Ethereum evangelist Anthony Sassano debating whether the historic four‑year crypto cycle still applies. Sassano argues that the traditional top‑to‑bottom or bottom‑to‑bottom pattern that has guided Bitcoin and alt‑coin expectations is breaking down, citing the atypical price dynamics of the current cycle and the influence of new institutional participants.
He points to several data points: ETH has rebounded above $3,000, up 4% on the week, while Bitcoin hovers near $90,000. The October 10 crash wiped out a large swath of leveraged alt‑coin positions, but ETH and BTC showed relative resilience. Sassano notes that Bitcoin’s price action now resembles a “step‑up” pattern—periodic sideways moves with modest volatility—rather than the rapid spikes and crashes of prior cycles. He also highlights macro‑level liquidity trends, emphasizing that despite high interest‑rate environments, the market is already pricing in an easing cycle, which could decouple crypto from traditional liquidity cycles.
Key quotes underscore the shift: “The four‑year cycle is dead,” Sassano says, while Tom Lee, quoted in the show, maintains a bullish “super‑cycle” outlook, predicting ETH could reach $60K. Sassano also references the October alt‑coin implosion, describing it as the worst in history, and warns that opaque exchanges and forced liquidations amplified the sell‑off, creating an “unorderly” market environment.
The implications for investors are clear: traditional cycle‑based timing may no longer be reliable, and capital may gravitate toward Ethereum’s more mature ecosystem, especially as upcoming upgrades like the Fusaka hard fork and ZK‑rollup developments promise scalability and security enhancements. Stakeholders should monitor institutional inflows, liquidity shifts, and protocol upgrades rather than relying on historical cycle calendars.
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