A Tale of Two Straits: Sweden and Denmark Are in a Position of Power Over Russia

Key Takeaways

• Øresund carries ~60% of Russia’s oil exports to Europe
• Inspections could cut 30‑50% of Russian war‑funding oil revenue
• Sweden has already boarded five shadow‑fleet vessels
• Denmark’s commercial concerns delay coordinated choke‑point action
• Existing maritime law already authorizes stops of flagged or uninsured ships

Pulse Analysis

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz this year sent oil prices soaring to $120 a barrel, underscoring how a narrow waterway can destabilize the global economy. The disruption rippled through South Asia and Africa, inflating fertilizer and food costs, while East Asian importers faced supply shortages. This episode illustrates the strategic leverage that chokepoints provide to regional powers, even when facing the world’s most advanced navies.

In contrast, the Øresund Strait—linking the Baltic Sea to the North Sea—remains open, yet it funnels roughly 60% of Russia’s oil exports that finance its war in Ukraine. Under existing maritime law, vessels sailing under false flags, lacking valid insurance, or appearing on sanctions lists can be inspected and detained. Sweden has already conducted five boardings of shadow‑fleet ships, proving operational readiness. Denmark, sharing the opposite shore, possesses identical legal authority but hesitates due to commercial interests and fear of Russian retaliation.

If Sweden and Denmark coordinate routine inspections, Europe could deprive Russia of up to half its oil revenue, a shortfall the Kremlin cannot easily absorb. The fiscal pressure would amplify domestic dissent and constrain military spending, offering Europe a powerful, non‑military tool to influence the conflict. The decision hinges on political will; turning the Øresund into a functional choke point would signal a new era of European strategic autonomy, leveraging geography to shape global security dynamics.