Defense & Aerospace Daily Podcast [Feb 25, 2026] Mesh Feigenbaum on Global Industrial Capacity

Why It Matters

Aerospace and defense production hinges on these presses; capacity shortfalls threaten program timelines and national security, while geopolitical shifts could tilt competitive advantage toward China.

Key Takeaways

• Global forging press capacity aging, causing supply chain vulnerabilities
• China investing heavily in sovereign forging capabilities
• US lacks commercial viability without government subsidies
• Press failures can halt programs for years
• Revitalizing US forging industry requires billions in investment

Pulse Analysis

The aerospace and defense sectors rely on a handful of massive forging presses to shape critical components such as turbine discs, landing gear, and missile casings. These presses, many built in the 1970s and 1980s, are approaching the end of their design life, and unplanned outages can sideline production for months or even years. Mesh Feigenbaum’s updated benchmark highlights that global capacity is not expanding; instead, it is contracting as older machines retire faster than replacements are commissioned, creating a systemic bottleneck for both commercial aircraft and military platforms.

China’s strategic response underscores the vulnerability of the current supply chain. Beijing has poured state capital into constructing new, high‑capacity forging facilities, aiming to secure sovereign production for its expanding fighter jet and space programs. In contrast, U.S. manufacturers operate on thin commercial margins and depend heavily on defense contracts, making private investment unattractive without federal backing. The disparity means that while China is rapidly expanding its domestic capability, the United States risks falling behind on critical component availability, potentially eroding its competitive edge in high‑tech defense markets.

Feigenbaum argues that revitalizing the U.S. forging ecosystem will require a coordinated public‑private effort, including direct subsidies, tax incentives, and a long‑term procurement strategy that guarantees a steady order book. Estimates suggest that replacing or modernizing the existing fleet could cost between $10 billion and $15 billion over the next decade. Such investment would not only safeguard existing programs but also create a strategic reserve of capacity, ensuring that future aircraft, hypersonic weapons, and space launch systems remain resilient against equipment failures or geopolitical shocks.