Q&A with Robert D. Kaplan

Key Takeaways

• Kaplan predicts new Iranian regime within five years after war
• Monsoon Asia remains central to U.S. strategic and economic interests
• Indian Navy likely accelerates capabilities after U.S. submarine incident
• Modi’s strategic mindset deepens U.S.–India partnership against China
• Kaplan warns Ukraine war could trigger semi‑collapse of Russia

Pulse Analysis

Robert D. Kaplan’s body of work, from "The Revenge of Geography" to his latest "Waste Land," has long served as a barometer for geopolitical risk. His latest interview underscores a grim outlook for Iran, where water scarcity, a collapsing middle class, and a devalued currency set the stage for regime change within half a decade. This assessment aligns with broader trends of internal fragility in authoritarian states, prompting Washington to recalibrate its diplomatic and intelligence posture in the Gulf.

The Indian Ocean incident—where a U.S. submarine sank Iran’s IRIS Dena—highlights the evolving security calculus in the region. While Kaplan assures that the episode won’t jeopardize the strategic U.S.–India partnership, it acts as a catalyst for India to fast‑track naval modernization, especially in undersea detection. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has adopted a more pragmatic, strategically driven foreign policy, seeking U.S. support to counterbalance China’s maritime ambitions. The incident therefore reinforces a feedback loop: perceived threats accelerate capability development, which in turn reshapes power dynamics across the Indo‑Pacific.

Looking east, Kaplan warns that the Ukraine conflict may precipitate a semi‑collapse of Russia, echoing the disintegration of empires after World War I. Simultaneously, he stresses the enduring relevance of area specialists, a theme he will explore in his forthcoming book "China Whisperers," which profiles the scholars shaping America’s view of its chief rival. In an era where great‑power rivalry is intensifying, Kaplan’s insights remind policymakers that deep regional expertise and an appreciation of historical patterns are essential for crafting resilient, forward‑looking strategies.