Recalibrating U.S. Intelligence Strategy for an Uncertain Global Order

Summary

In this episode Alexander Bick and Philip Potter argue that U.S. intelligence must adapt to a more contested global order by (1) treating leaders' public statements as credible indicators of intent, (2) systematically mapping elite and non‑state ecosystems, (3) emphasizing cross‑theater dynamics, and (4) incorporating time horizons into analysis. They illustrate how discounting rhetoric contributed to surprise in Russia's actions in Ukraine and Syria, and warn that China’s explicit goals on Taiwan and technology signal long‑term strategic trajectories that should not be ignored. The guests stress that power now flows through diffuse networks of corporations, universities, and investors, requiring integrated human and signals intelligence to map these ecosystems and identify vulnerabilities. Their perspective draws on recent U.S. National Security and Defense Strategies and highlights the need for a new National Intelligence Strategy that reflects these four themes.