The Marine Corps Must Plan Now for a Long War with China | USNI Proceedings

Key Takeaways

• China’s precision strikes could degrade III MEF in 30 days
• Preserve experienced training cadres now for future force regeneration
• Expand forward basing near the first island chain
• Integrate WWII lessons: draftee use, infrastructure growth
• Joint Staff urged to draft a modern Victory Plan

Pulse Analysis

The United States faces a strategic inflection point as China’s anti‑access/area‑denial capabilities mature. Kerg’s analysis in USNI Proceedings highlights a stark scenario: a rapid, high‑intensity strike could decimate the III Marine Expeditionary Force within a month, eroding the initial combat power the nation relies on for island‑hopping campaigns. This risk forces senior leaders to reconsider the traditional force‑size paradigm and to embed long‑term regeneration concepts into today’s planning cycles, ensuring that the Marine Corps can rebuild and expand as the conflict evolves.

Historical precedent offers a roadmap. During World War II, the Marine Corps grew from a modest expeditionary force to a global power by institutionalizing experienced training cadres, integrating draftees, and rapidly expanding basing infrastructure across the Pacific. Kerg argues that replicating these four lessons—building seasoned instructors, scaling recruitment pipelines, constructing forward training sites, and reconstituting attrited units—will be essential against a modern Chinese adversary. Forward basing closer to the first island chain not only shortens logistical lines but also provides a resilient platform for continuous training and force replenishment, mitigating the attrition shock of early‑war strikes.

The broader defense community must treat this as a policy choice, not an inevitability. Retired Colonel Shawn Creamer’s call for a contemporary “Victory Plan” echoes the 1941 mobilization framework, urging the Joint Staff to embed conscription, national mobilization, and multi‑theater sustainment into the strategic blueprint. By aligning Marine Corps regeneration efforts with joint force planning, the United States can preserve its deterrent credibility, maintain operational tempo over years, and avoid the strategic paralysis that would follow an unprepared opening phase. The convergence of doctrinal foresight and historical lessons thus becomes the linchpin for winning a protracted great‑power war in the Pacific.