The War On the Abraham Accords

Key Takeaways

• Iran escalated attacks on UAE after Operation Epic Fury
• Saudi, Qatar, Turkey push narrative: Israel > Iran threat
• New Gulf security model seeks partners beyond Israel
• Accords face coordinated military and informational opposition
• Narrative aims to reverse normalization gains

Pulse Analysis

The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, marked the first Arab‑Israeli normalization in decades. Early criticism was largely moralistic, rooted in the long‑standing Arab‑Palestinian solidarity narrative that condemned any bilateral ties without a comprehensive peace settlement. That discourse, while vocal, lacked a unified strategic apparatus and was confined to public statements and think‑tank op‑eds. Over the past two years, however, the opposition has morphed into a more sophisticated campaign that blends kinetic pressure with a coordinated information offensive, fundamentally challenging the accords’ durability.

The kinetic front emerged when Iran launched Operation Epic Fury, striking UAE airports, seaports, oil facilities and desalination plants with a volume of fire surpassing any previous Gulf target. Simultaneously, a media coalition led by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey has been disseminating a single strategic narrative: Israel now poses a greater security threat to the Gulf than Iran itself. Articles in Western policy journals, Gulf‑funded English outlets and Turkish‑Qatari platforms portray the Israel‑UAE security axis as the root cause of regional instability and advocate a pivot toward alternative partners such as Turkey, Pakistan, South Korea and Europe.

If the narrative gains traction, it could erode the economic and security benefits that have accrued from the accords, including trade growth, joint defense projects and U.S. strategic footholds in the Persian Gulf. Washington, which has championed the normalization as a bulwark against Iranian influence, may face a dilemma: reinforce diplomatic incentives for the Gulf states or accommodate a shifting security calculus that sidelines Israel. The outcome will shape the next phase of Middle East geopolitics, influencing everything from energy markets to defense procurement and the broader U.S. foreign‑policy agenda in the region.