Trump Congratulates Incoming Iraqi Leader, Who Moves To Disarm Pro-Iran Militias

Key Takeaways

• Three‑man Iraqi committee drafts plan to disarm Iran‑backed PMF factions
• US officials will review the executive disarmament plan within days
• PMF groups Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada reject weapon handover
• Trump’s congratulatory call signals renewed US interest in Iraq’s security reforms
• Potential visit by former General David Petraeus to oversee militia disengagement

Pulse Analysis

Iraq’s political transition is entering a critical phase as Ali al‑Zaidi prepares to assume the premiership. His nomination, supported by the Shia‑dominated Coordination Framework, comes with a mandate to address the entrenched power of Iran‑aligned militias. A three‑member committee—comprising Zaidi, outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani, and Badr Organization leader Hadi al‑Amiri—has drafted an executive plan to strip the Popular Mobilization Forces of heavy weaponry and integrate fighters into state structures. The draft, slated for review by U.S. officials within days, signals a coordinated effort to align Baghdad’s security architecture with Washington’s strategic interests.

The push to disarm the PMF reflects broader U.S. concerns about Tehran’s foothold in Iraq. Since the 2014 fight against ISIS, Iran‑backed factions have become semi‑autonomous power brokers, complicating Baghdad’s sovereignty and fueling regional proxy tensions. Recent U.S. sanctions targeting Iraqi individuals and companies linked to Iran underscore the diplomatic pressure applied to force compliance. Yet key militias—Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada, and Harakat al‑Nujaba—have openly rejected weapon handovers, warning of severe repercussions. Their defiance highlights the delicate balance between curbing external influence and avoiding a destabilizing backlash that could reignite sectarian violence.

If successful, the disarmament could unlock renewed economic cooperation and foreign investment. A more predictable security environment would benefit Iraq’s oil sector, where U.S. firms hold significant stakes, and could pave the way for broader reconstruction projects. Conversely, a stalled or violent rollout risks disrupting oil exports, deterring capital, and perpetuating the proxy war that has plagued the region for years. The prospective involvement of former General David Petraeus, a figure with deep ties to Iraq’s security reforms, adds a layer of credibility to the U.S. agenda, but also raises questions about the long‑term sustainability of externally driven militia integration.