What Are Small Wars? | Irregular Warfare Podcast #1

Key Takeaways

• Small wars defined as low‑intensity, irregular conflicts
• Great‑power competition revives focus on irregular warfare
• Big data analytics reshape understanding of conflict dynamics
• U.S. lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan remain contested

Summary

The Modern War Institute, together with Princeton’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, launched the inaugural Irregular Warfare Podcast. In the first episode, hosts Kyle Atwell and Nick Lopez interview Princeton political scientist Dr. Jake Shapiro and Colonel Patrick Howell to explore the definition of "small wars." The discussion links scholarly research—especially Shapiro’s book *Small Wars, Big Data*—with on‑the‑ground experience from Iraq, Afghanistan and other irregular conflicts. It aims to bridge the gap between academia and practitioners for policy‑relevant insights.

Pulse Analysis

The term "small wars" encompasses low‑intensity, irregular conflicts that fall outside conventional state‑versus‑state battles. While historically relegated to colonial or counterinsurgency contexts, these engagements now intersect with great‑power rivalry, as major powers seek influence through proxy forces, cyber operations, and hybrid tactics. By framing small wars through a data‑driven lens, scholars like Dr. Jake Shapiro demonstrate how massive datasets can reveal patterns in recruitment, financing, and battlefield outcomes that were previously invisible.

The inaugural Irregular Warfare Podcast serves as a conduit between theory and practice. Colonel Patrick Howell brings two decades of field experience, highlighting operational challenges such as cultural intelligence gaps and the difficulty of measuring success in fluid environments. Meanwhile, academic perspectives underscore the importance of rigorous empirical methods to evaluate past campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, extracting lessons that can be adapted to emerging theaters like the Indo‑Pacific and Eastern Europe. This cross‑pollination helps policymakers avoid repeating costly mistakes while refining doctrine for future irregular engagements.

For decision‑makers, the podcast’s insights signal a shift toward integrating big‑data analytics into strategic planning. Real‑time monitoring of social media, financial flows, and troop movements enables faster, more precise responses to insurgent tactics. As the United States recalibrates its defense posture, recognizing the persistent relevance of small wars ensures that resources are allocated not just for high‑end conventional forces but also for specialized units, training, and technology tailored to irregular threats. The conversation thus underscores a broader strategic imperative: mastering the nuances of small wars is essential for maintaining stability in an increasingly contested global landscape.