Berlin Ready to Choose GCAP over Franco-German Project SCAF?

Why It Matters

Germany’s potential pivot to GCAP could reshape Europe’s combat‑air industrial landscape and influence the allocation of billions in defence spending.

Key Takeaways

• Germany considers GCAP, potentially leaving SCAF
• Franco‑German tensions stem from industrial competition
• GCAP seeks funding relief via new partners
• France's defence budget to hit €64bn by 2027
• SCAF second phase costs €50bn, negotiations stalled

Pulse Analysis

The debate over Germany’s participation in the Global Combat Air Programme reflects deeper strategic calculations within Europe’s defence sector. While the SCAF initiative was born from a 2017 Franco‑German agreement to field a next‑generation fighter, divergent industrial priorities and cost pressures have eroded its cohesion. Germany’s interest in GCAP, which integrates manned aircraft, drones and satellite systems, offers a pathway to share development expenses and tap into a broader technology pool that includes the United Kingdom and Japan. This alignment could also mitigate the financial strain of the SCAF’s €50 billion second phase slated for 2026.

France’s response underscores a parallel narrative of national ambition and fiscal commitment. With a defence budget projected to reach €64 billion by 2027, Paris is prepared to advance its combat‑air capabilities independently if multilateral talks falter. Dassault Aviation’s leadership in the project emphasizes sovereign control over critical expertise, positioning France as a potential sole supplier for a European‑wide platform. However, the French government continues to champion a unified European defence industry, suggesting that a unilateral path remains a strategic fallback rather than a definitive exit.

The outcome of these negotiations will have ripple effects across the continent’s aerospace supply chain and broader geopolitical posture. A German shift to GCAP could accelerate the program’s timeline, attract additional partners, and reshape export prospects for European combat aircraft. Conversely, a stalled SCAF may force France to seek alternative funding or re‑configure its development roadmap, potentially inviting non‑EU actors into the market. Stakeholders—from defense ministries to industrial conglomerates—must monitor these dynamics closely, as they will dictate the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy and its ability to compete with U.S. and Russian air power advancements.

Berlin ready to choose GCAP over Franco-German project SCAF?

Emma Dupuy · 9 February 2026, 10:41

The latest report from Italian daily newspaper Corriere della Sera casts a negative light on Franco‑German defence cooperation.

At the intergovernmental summit in Rome, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reportedly asked Georgia Meloni about the possibility of Germany joining the GCAP (Global Combat Air Programme). Such a move would imply abandoning the SCAF (Future Combat Air System), launched in 2017 as a defence agreement between Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, later joined by Spain. Chancellor Merz would have met no objection – on the contrary, Italian authorities indicated their openness to Germany’s participation.

Tensions surrounding the SCAF project are not new. They originate primarily from industrial tensions which have escalated because of Germany’s growing frustration with what it perceives as France’s assertive stance. Last September, France stated that it would proceed with the development of a future combat aircraft on its own should negotiations with Spain and Germany fail. This position was reinforced by Dassault Aviation’s CEO Eric Trappier, who expressed the company’s ambition to have a leading role in the project, arguing that France has sovereign control over the expertise, skills and industrial capabilities to develop, produce and maintain the project autonomously.

GCAP is a combat‑aircraft programme co‑founded by Italy (Leonardo), the United Kingdom (BAE Systems) and Japan (Mitsubishi). Its defence system combines manned aircraft with drones and satellites. However, the programme also faces its own challenges, especially financial constraints. This issue could be alleviated by the entry of a new partner, making German participation particularly timely.

By contrast, 2026 marks a strong start in France’s military spending, with the defence budget expected to reach €64 billion annually by 2027. Emmanuel Macron has urged the French defence industry to scale up its efforts and strengthen its capabilities, stating the need to be a mighty, stabilising country to assert territorial sovereignty.

As negotiations on SCAF continue to stall, France appears determined to accelerate progress, even if it means acting alone. Nevertheless, it is worth reminding that France remains deeply committed to the idea of a European defence industry, making a unilateral approach unlikely. As for Germany, Chancellor Merz has recently dismissed allegations circulating in the German press, stating that dialogue around SCAF is still ongoing. As far as we know, France and Germany appear to continue efforts to reach a compromise on the future of the programme. The second phase of the project is supposed to start in 2026 with an estimated total cost of €50 billion.

Author: Emma Dupuy