If Iran Agrees to Everything, Was the War Worth It?

Why It Matters

The deal would lock in a limited nuclear concession while granting Iran unprecedented economic leverage over a critical oil chokepoint, reshaping U.S. influence in the Gulf and exposing allies to renewed security risks.

Key Takeaways

• Iran could levy tolls on Hormuz traffic, gaining new revenue stream
• Gulf states' confidence in U.S. protection erodes after war damage
• Proposed deal mirrors 2015 JCPOA, offering limited enrichment restrictions
• Israel rejects any agreement that leaves Iran's missile and proxy capabilities intact

Pulse Analysis

The war in the Middle East has shifted from a conventional conflict to a strategic contest over the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil conduit. By controlling permit issuance, Tehran can monetize every tanker that passes, turning a geographic chokepoint into a fiscal lever. This new revenue stream would fund Tehran’s broader regional ambitions, from missile development to proxy support, and would require constant diplomatic management by Washington and its allies.

The leaked memorandum of understanding resembles the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in many respects: a 12‑15‑year enrichment moratorium, a rollback of 60%‑enriched uranium, and enhanced inspections. Yet it stops short of addressing Iran’s ballistic‑missile arsenal and its network of militias, the very issues that drove Israel and the Gulf to oppose the original JCPOA. By offering only a partial rollback, the proposal risks creating a false sense of progress while leaving the core security threats untouched.

For Gulf partners, the war’s aftermath erodes the perceived safety net that U.S. military presence once provided. The destruction of bases and the demonstrated ability of Iranian forces to strike at regional targets have heightened risk calculations for investors and policymakers alike. As Washington weighs a deal that could stabilize nuclear proliferation but cement Tehran’s economic grip on Hormuz, it must also consider how to restore confidence among its Arab allies and prevent a new equilibrium that empowers Iran at the expense of regional stability.