Moldova. EU – Yes; CIS – No; Unirea – Not This Time

Why It Matters

Moldova’s pivot away from the CIS and toward the EU reshapes the geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe, reducing Russian leverage. The move also reinforces the country’s trajectory toward European standards and security frameworks.

Key Takeaways

• Moldova exits CIS, ending Russian‑linked cooperation
• EU integration deepens under President Sandu's leadership
• Public support for Western alignment exceeds fifty percent
• Reunification with Romania remains speculative, not imminent
• Russian influence wanes as Ukraine war persists

Pulse Analysis

Moldova’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States marks a symbolic and practical severance from Moscow’s regional network. The CIS, long viewed as a conduit for Russian political and economic influence, has seen Moldova’s participation dwindle over recent years. By formalizing its exit, Chişinău not only curtails any remaining institutional ties but also sends a clear message to Kyiv and Brussels that its strategic orientation is firmly Western. This step aligns with broader trends of former Soviet states reassessing legacy alliances amid heightened security concerns.

The acceleration of EU integration under President Maia Sandu reflects both political will and shifting public sentiment. Since her 2020 election victory, reforms targeting governance, anti‑corruption, and market liberalization have gained traction, bolstering Moldova’s eligibility for deeper EU cooperation mechanisms. Polls now show a stable majority—over half of the electorate—favoring a European future, a figure that rises sharply among younger voters and the Romanian‑speaking demographic. This growing consensus strengthens Moldova’s bargaining position in negotiations on trade, energy diversification, and border security, while also contributing to the EU’s eastern enlargement narrative.

Debates about a potential union with Romania, often termed "Unirea," have re‑emerged in public discourse, yet political realities keep the idea distant. Historical attempts at personal union have failed to translate into actionable policy, and current domestic coalitions prioritize EU accession over constitutional reunification. Moreover, Moscow’s continued propaganda efforts and the lingering presence of pro‑Russian parties add layers of complexity. Nonetheless, the symbolic resonance of a shared cultural and linguistic heritage persists, suggesting that while formal unification remains unlikely soon, the topic will continue to influence Moldova’s identity politics and its diplomatic calculus with both the EU and Russia.

Moldova. EU – yes; CIS – no; Unirea – not this time

Adam Burakowski · 12:00

Moldova has taken decisive steps to bring its cooperation within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to a definitive close – an organization widely regarded as one of the lingering instruments of Russian influence across the former Soviet space.

Photo: Wikipedia

At the same time, Chişinău is deepening its integration with the European Union. In recent weeks, talk of reunification with Romania has resurfaced as well – though such a development is neither imminent nor likely in the foreseeable future.

Since at least 2020, the Republic of Moldova has been steadily charting a pro‑Western and pro‑European course. Following Maia Sandu’s victory in that year’s presidential election, integration with Western institutions accelerated markedly. Public sentiment has evolved in parallel. Support for the pro‑Western option now consistently exceeds 50 percent, particularly among younger citizens and the Romanian‑speaking population. Russian appeals steeped in nostalgia for the Soviet Union have little resonance with these groups.

Indeed, what persuasive arguments can Moscow still offer? Moldovan citizens need only look northward to see Russia waging war in Ukraine – destroying cities, prolonging conflict, and taking lives. For many observers, this appears to be the Kremlin’s only tangible “program.” It is difficult to imagine for whom such a vision might hold appeal. Even the most pro‑Russian segments of Moldovan society are likely to harbor serious second thoughts.

In this context, withdrawing from various frameworks of cooperation with Russia becomes a logical step. The CIS was among the most prominent of these platforms. Moldova has shown minimal engagement within the organization for several years, so its gradual departure comes as little surprise – even in Moscow. Though the move has been criticized there, it could not be prevented. That said, Russia is unlikely to relinquish its interest in Moldova. The Kremlin will continue to deploy propaganda and rely on politicians aligned with its interests.

Meanwhile, the debate over Unirea – the reunification of Moldova and Romania – has once again entered public discourse. Yet the political climate is far from conducive to such a project, and is unlikely to become so anytime soon. Over the years, several politicians have attempted to replicate the historical precedent of Alexandru Ioan Cuza by seeking leadership roles in both Bucharest and Chişinău in pursuit of a “personal union.” Leonida Lari made the attempt; so did Mircea Druc. Perhaps one day Maia Sandu might consider it. For now, however, the question of reunification remains firmly in the realm of speculation rather than political reality.