Reintegrating the Western Balkans: EU and NATO Strategy

Why It Matters

A swift, coordinated EU‑NATO strategy can secure the EU’s southeastern flank while unlocking a market of 18 million people and critical raw materials. Failure to act cedes influence to revisionist powers and destabilises European security.

Key Takeaways

• EU lag allows Russia, China to expand influence
• Integration could add 18 million consumers to EU market
• NATO cooperation boosts regional security and deters hybrid threats
• Targeted infrastructure funds reduce dependency on non‑EU investors

Pulse Analysis

The Western Balkans sit at a geopolitical crossroads where a vacuum created by slow EU enlargement invites rival powers to embed economic and political footholds. Russia leverages energy assets, China funds infrastructure through opaque deals, and Turkey blends investment with cultural diplomacy, all exploiting the EU’s consensus‑driven decision‑making. A unified EU‑NATO approach that pairs diplomatic pressure with credible security guarantees can reverse this trend, reinforcing democratic norms and limiting the strategic reach of external actors.

Economically, the Balkans present both a challenge and an opportunity. Persistent unemployment, weak foreign direct investment, and fragmented markets hinder growth, while the region’s natural resources—lithium in Serbia, bauxite in Bosnia, and hydropower in Albania—offer strategic value to the EU. Directing EU and transatlantic capital into sustainable infrastructure, digital connectivity, and energy diversification can integrate the Balkans into the single market, expanding the consumer base by 18 million and reducing reliance on Russian and Chinese financing that often carries hidden geopolitical costs.

Security considerations demand deeper NATO engagement and internal reforms. Joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and capacity‑building initiatives can fortify fragile institutions and deter hybrid threats. Coupled with stringent accession conditionality—targeting rule‑of‑law, anti‑corruption, and minority rights—these measures encourage political accountability and civil‑society resilience. The combined diplomatic, economic, and security package not only safeguards the EU’s southeastern border but also signals a decisive commitment to a stable, prosperous, and Euro‑Atlantic aligned Western Balkans.

Reintegrating the Western Balkans: EU and NATO strategy

Defence24.com · 11:11 (10 min read) · Photo: E. Vasilij

Historical and geopolitical context

Three decades after the wars that shattered the Western Balkans, the region remains a pivotal arena for European security and political stability. While some countries have made progress towards Euro‑Atlantic integration, pervasive challenges—including ethnic divisions, weak governance, and external interference—continue to obstruct sustainable development.

The stakes extend beyond the Balkans themselves. The region’s instability poses a threat to broader European security, creating vulnerabilities that are increasingly exploited by powers seeking to undermine democratic governance and expand their strategic influence.

The Western Balkans’ complex history has left enduring scars. The ethnic conflicts of the 1990s, unresolved territorial disputes, and fragile state institutions continue to shape political dynamics. Bosnia and Herzegovina remains divided along ethnic lines, Kosovo’s independence is contested, and Serbia’s foreign policy balances East and West with deliberate ambiguity.

In the absence of rapid EU integration, rival powers have embedded themselves economically, politically, and culturally. Russia leverages energy dominance, political patronage, and disinformation to maintain influence, particularly in Serbia and Republika Srpska. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has transformed the region’s infrastructure landscape, often under opaque financing conditions that create long‑term dependencies. Türkiye combines investment with cultural diplomacy, rooted in its shared history, and positions itself as a regional economic and political partner.

These external actors bring a capacity for swift, centralised decision‑making that the EU—bound by consensus and complex procedures—struggles to match. The resulting asymmetry allows competitors to define governance norms, trade alignments, and security partnerships that run counter to EU strategic interests. Europe’s delayed or fragmented approach has left a vacuum, which external actors are eager to fill. Without coherent EU and NATO strategies, the region risks drifting further into instability, undermining the transatlantic security order.

---

Political Imperatives for Integration

Effective governance and rule of law are prerequisites for integration. Corruption, weak judicial systems, and political clientelism impede the implementation of reforms and threaten the legitimacy of democratic institutions. The EU must maintain stringent conditionality while offering credible incentives that reward tangible progress.

Integration requires not only national reforms but also enhanced regional cooperation. Initiatives such as the Berlin Process have promoted infrastructure and connectivity, but political disputes often undermine implementation. Strengthening cross‑border collaboration in trade, security, and infrastructure is essential to create a cohesive regional bloc capable of engaging with the EU on equal terms.

A resilient civil society and inclusive political processes reduce susceptibility to extremist narratives and external manipulation. Education, media freedom, and participatory governance are pivotal in fostering societal cohesion, mitigating ethnic tensions, and supporting the emergence of accountable leadership.

---

Economic Imperatives

Western Balkans economic development is closely linked to political stability and EU integration. Persistent unemployment, low foreign investment, and inadequate infrastructure impede growth and fuel public disillusionment.

Strategic EU and transatlantic investment in infrastructure, energy, and digital connectivity enhances economic resilience. Projects must prioritize sustainability, regional integration, and alignment with EU standards to prevent dependency on external actors offering short‑term gains at strategic cost.

• Russia controls Serbia’s energy sector through NIS (Naftna industrija Srbije). In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the only two refineries belong to the Russian corporation Zarubezhneft.

• China invested approximately €1.4 billion in Serbia in 2022 – roughly equivalent to the total investment volume of all 27 EU member states combined. In the first half of 2024, it became the largest foreign investor with €697.9 million.

• Türkiye controls the container and general cargo terminal at the Port of Bar (Montenegro) through Global Ports Holding Plc.

Integration into the EU’s single market facilitates access to capital, technology, and broader consumer bases. Removing trade barriers and harmonising regulatory frameworks incentivises reform and enhances competitiveness, providing both economic and political dividends.

The Western Balkans offers concrete strategic value: bringing 18 million people into the single market would expand the EU’s economic reach in Southeast Europe. The region also holds valuable resources, such as Serbia’s lithium and copper, Bosnia’s bauxite and iron ore, North Macedonia’s chromium and nickel, and Albania’s hydropower and oil reserves.

---

Security Imperatives

The Western Balkans’ security environment remains fragile. Unresolved conflicts, organised crime, and political instability create vulnerabilities that can be exploited by external actors. NATO membership and cooperation serve as stabilising mechanisms, reinforcing internal security and deterring external interference.

Enhanced NATO engagement—including joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and capacity‑building—strengthens regional resilience. Early and credible security guarantees incentivise political reform while demonstrating the West’s commitment to the region.

A coherent strategy to counter external influence is essential. Russia and China employ economic, political, and informational tools to weaken Euro‑Atlantic alignment. The EU and NATO must coordinate diplomatic, economic, and security measures to safeguard strategic interests and reinforce the legitimacy of integration processes.

The Western Balkans lacks unified military structures; only Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia are NATO members. Serbia maintains a relatively capable armed force but is aligned with neither NATO nor the EU. However, integration cannot proceed blindly. Serbia under President Vučić continues to destabilise the region by fuelling tensions in Kosovo, backing secessionist rhetoric in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and influencing politics in Montenegro. Vučić’s close ties to Moscow and Beijing raise the risk of sensitive EU or NATO information being shared with these powers.

Montenegro faces significant infiltration risks from pro‑Serbian and pro‑Russian political actors, which could potentially compromise NATO intelligence. Similar threats may also arise from Chinese actors. Russian hybrid warfare—from cyber‑attacks to disinformation—has already targeted Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina to weaken their Euro‑Atlantic trajectory.

---

Strategic Recommendations

1. Clear Conditionality and Incentives – Tie EU accession to measurable reforms in governance, anti‑corruption, and minority rights, while providing structured pathways for membership.

2. Targeted Investment Programs – Prioritise infrastructure, digital connectivity, and regional trade networks to foster economic resilience.

3. Strengthening Security Architecture – Expand NATO cooperation, intelligence sharing, and crisis preparedness to deter destabilising influences.

4. Promotion of Civil Society and Reconciliation – Support media freedom, education, and cross‑ethnic initiatives to build social cohesion and political accountability.

5. Integrated Diplomatic Engagement – Ensure consistent EU and transatlantic messaging, combining incentives with credible deterrence against external manipulation.

---

Consequences of Delay

Failure to accelerate integration carries significant risks: renewed ethnic tensions, migration pressures, strategic vulnerability to revisionist powers, and erosion of EU credibility. A fragmented Western Balkans weakens the broader European order and undermines transatlantic security objectives. Prolonged stagnation fosters frustration among citizens, erodes trust in institutions, and strengthens illiberal and external actors eager to exploit the vacuum.

---

Conclusion

The Western Balkans offers demographic potential, critical raw materials, fertile land, and a pivotal geographic position. Integrating the region would close one of Europe’s most significant security gaps, diminish the reach of rival powers, and align the EU’s south‑eastern flank under a unified framework.

Its integration must be conditional. Rule‑of‑law reforms, anti‑corruption measures, and alignment with EU foreign and security policy are prerequisites. Strategic patience is essential – but so is urgency. In the Balkans, geopolitical vacuums are never empty for long; they are swiftly filled by powers whose interests may run counter to European stability and values. Hesitation is not neutrality – it is the gradual surrender of influence to those who seek to reshape Europe’s borders and political order.

---

About the author

Eduard Vasilj holds degrees in political science and international law from Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Germany, and in political science and organisation from the University of Zagreb, Croatia. He began his career advising governments and governmental organisations and has nearly two decades of experience at the executive board level in multinational corporations in the German‑speaking region as well as in Eastern and South‑Eastern Europe. As a strategic advisor at the board level and chairman of supervisory boards, he advises governments, state organisations, state investors and companies on geoeconomic and geopolitical risks, investment security, governance and strategic decision‑making. He is an internationally recognised author and expert on geoeconomics and geopolitics, providing practical recommendations for decisions at the interface of strategy, security and economic policy.

---

References

1. European Council, Stabilisation and Association Process, 2022.

2. EEAS, EU‑Western Balkans Relations, 2023.

3. International Crisis Group, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Fragile Peace, 2021.

4. Carnegie Europe, Balkan Troubles: Russia’s Influence, 2021.

5. Balkan Investigative Reporting Network, China in the Western Balkans, 2022.

6. Politico Europe, Erdogan’s Influence in the Balkans, 2023.

7. NATO, The Western Balkans: Regional Stability and Security, 2022.

8. European Commission, Rule of Law Reports: Western Balkans, 2023.

9. German Federal Foreign Office, The Berlin Process and Regional Cooperation, 2022.

10. Freedom House, Nations in Transit: Western Balkans, 2023.

11. World Bank, Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, 2023.

12. European Investment Bank, Infrastructure Investment in the Western Balkans, 2022.

13. EBRD, Foreign Direct Investment in Serbia, 2023.

14. European Commission, The Single Market and Enlargement, 2022.

15. IMF, Western Balkans: Economic Outlook and Natural Resources, 2023.

16. IISS, Western Balkans Security Outlook, 2023.

17. NATO, Cooperation with the Western Balkans, 2022.

18. ECFR, Russia and China in the Balkans, 2021.

19. Carnegie Europe, Serbia’s Foreign Policy Balancing Act, 2023.

20. Atlantic Council, Hybrid Threats in the Western Balkans, 2023.

21. European Commission, Enlargement Strategy and Key Challenges, 2023.

22. European Investment Bank, Western Balkans Investment Framework, 2022.

23. NATO Review, Strengthening Security in Southeast Europe, 2022.

24. Freedom House, Civil Society and Media in the Balkans, 2023.

25. CFR, EU and Transatlantic Diplomacy in the Balkans, 2023.

26. International Crisis Group, Balkans: Stalled Integration and Rising Risks, 2022.

27. Brookings Institution, Why EU Delay in the Balkans Matters, 2023.

28. European Parliament Research Service, The Geostrategic Importance of the Western Balkans, 2022.

29. Transparency International, Rule of Law and Corruption in the Western Balkans, 2023.

30. The Economist, The Perils of Delay in the Balkans, 2023.