‘Saying You’re a Geopolitical Actor Doesn’t Make It so’: Sven Biscop on Europe

Why It Matters

Europe’s inability to project power or a clear strategy risks marginalization in global crises, weakening its leverage over the US, China, and regional partners.

Key Takeaways

• EU lacks military capacity, limiting influence in Iran‑Hormuz crisis
• Europe must shift from reactive to proactive diplomatic initiatives
• Building an autonomous European NATO pillar is essential for security
• Absence of clear US‑EU and EU‑China strategies weakens leverage
• Rules‑based order faces strain from great‑power rivalries

Pulse Analysis

The Iran‑Israel confrontation and the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have laid bare Europe’s strategic blind spot: a modest defence budget that prevents meaningful military contributions. While the EU can still marshal diplomatic assets, its current ad‑hoc approach—splitting between legalistic statements and timid actions—fails to shape outcomes in the Gulf, the Caucasus, or Africa. Analysts argue that a decisive shift toward coordinated diplomacy, backed by credible security guarantees, is essential for the Union to be taken seriously by both regional actors and great powers.

A core recommendation from Biscop is the creation of a European pillar within NATO that can function independently if Washington retreats. This would involve pooling defence capabilities, standardising command structures, and investing in rapid‑deployment forces. Such an autonomous element would preserve interoperability with the US while granting Europe the flexibility to act unilaterally when its interests are at stake, reinforcing the credibility of the forthcoming European Security Strategy.

Beyond defence, the interview highlights Europe’s strategic drift on the US‑China axis. The lack of a coherent China policy—oscillating between partnership, competition, and rivalry—leaves Brussels without clear leverage in negotiations over trade, technology, and security. Coupled with a weakening transatlantic bond, the EU risks being sidelined in any new global order. A unified, rules‑based approach that balances legal norms with pragmatic power politics could restore Europe’s influence and ensure it remains a central player in shaping the future international system.