States Must Change Frameworks for Cooperation, Former Indian Adviser Says

Why It Matters

The erosion of the existing international order reshapes energy security and geopolitical alignments, compelling nations to adopt new multilateral strategies to safeguard growth and stability.

Key Takeaways

• Menon warns current international order is effectively nonexistent.
• Strait of Hormuz closure spikes oil prices across Asia.
• U.S. disengagement fuels China’s economic and security influence.
• Asian middle powers must redesign cooperation frameworks.
• Energy security risks prompt calls for diversified supply routes.

Pulse Analysis

The abrupt shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—triggered by coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran—has sent oil markets into overdrive, pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel. For Asian economies that import more than 70% of their energy, the price shock translates into higher inflation, tighter trade balances, and mounting fiscal pressures. The incident also underscores the fragility of chokepoints that have underpinned global trade for decades, prompting policymakers to reassess supply‑chain resilience and explore alternative routes such as the Northern Sea Route and expanded pipeline projects.

Shivshankar Menon, who served as India’s national security adviser from 2010 to 2014, argues that the crisis reveals a deeper systemic failure: the post‑Cold War international order, anchored by U.S. leadership, is no longer operative. With Washington signaling a retreat from its traditional role—evidenced by the limited response to the Hormuz closure—China is stepping into the vacuum, leveraging its Belt and Road initiatives and growing defense partnerships across the Indo‑Pacific. Menon’s assessment reflects a broader consensus among security analysts that the balance of power is tilting, and that regional actors can no longer rely on a single hegemon to guarantee stability.

For Asian middle powers such as India, Vietnam, and Thailand, the imperative is clear: they must craft new frameworks for cooperation that are less dependent on any one great power. This could involve multilateral fuel reserve agreements, joint investment in renewable energy infrastructure, and coordinated diplomatic outreach to de‑escalate flashpoints. By diversifying energy sources and institutionalizing collective security mechanisms, these states can mitigate the risks of future disruptions while shaping a more inclusive, rules‑based order that reflects the realities of a multipolar world.