Thanks to Trump and Netanyahu, Everyone Now Wants to Go Nuclear

Why It Matters

The erosion of U.S. security guarantees fuels a nuclear arms race, threatening global non‑proliferation norms and destabilizing strategic balances. Investors and policymakers must monitor rising defense spending and supply‑chain risks tied to a potential new wave of nuclear programs.

Key Takeaways

• Iran's nuclear push intensifies after US‑Israeli strikes in 2026.
• Middle powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey eye nuclear options.
• US credibility of security guarantees erodes, fueling regional arms races.
• NPT adherence risks collapse as more states consider withdrawal.

Pulse Analysis

The recent U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iranian facilities has reshaped the strategic calculus in Tehran. By demonstrating that diplomatic engagement offers no protection, the attacks have amplified Tehran's perception that a nuclear deterrent is essential for regime survival. This narrative resonates beyond Iran, as neighboring states observe the apparent cost‑benefit of nuclear capability in a world where traditional security umbrellas appear unreliable.

Regional actors are now reevaluating their non‑proliferation commitments. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and even South Korea show growing public support for indigenous nuclear programs, driven by fears that reliance on U.S. guarantees may no longer be credible. The potential exodus from the NPT threatens to erode the treaty’s cornerstone—universal adherence—and could prompt a cascade of new nuclear entrants, raising the risk of miscalculation and escalation across volatile hotspots.

For the defense industry and capital markets, this shift translates into heightened demand for nuclear‑related technologies, missile defense systems, and advanced surveillance capabilities. Companies positioned in uranium enrichment, cyber‑security for nuclear infrastructure, and dual‑use aerospace may see accelerated investment flows. Meanwhile, policymakers must balance deterrence with diplomatic outreach to prevent a self‑reinforcing proliferation spiral that could destabilize both regional economies and global security architectures.