The End of the Axis of Abraham

Why It Matters

The disruption of Hormuz exports threatens global energy markets while the Gulf’s shift away from U.S.–Israel‑led security undermines Washington’s influence and reshapes Middle‑East power dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• Iran's strikes shut Strait of Hormuz, halting Gulf oil exports.
• UAE deepens US‑Israel ties; Oman maintains diplomatic restraint with Iran.
• Gulf states diversify arms sources: Turkey, South Korea, Ukraine, Japan.
• GCC defense integration stalls amid rivalries, prompting new security initiatives.
• Washington’s Israel‑centric strategy loses credibility among Gulf partners.

Pulse Analysis

The February 2024 U.S.–Israel offensive against Iran triggered a swift Iranian retaliation that targeted critical Gulf infrastructure, from airports to desalination plants, and sealed the Strait of Hormuz. By choking oil exports from Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, Tehran sent a clear signal that any perceived collusion between Gulf states and Western powers would be met with direct force. This escalation not only jeopardized the region’s reputation as a safe hub for global commerce but also forced energy traders to reassess supply‑risk premiums, underscoring the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints in global markets.

Historically, Gulf states balanced a delicate act: they cultivated deep defense ties with Washington, maintained a veneer of neutrality toward Tehran, and pursued normalization deals with Israel to secure advanced military technology. The recent conflict exposed the limits of that approach. While Oman opted for diplomatic restraint, the UAE and Bahrain leaned into U.S. and Israeli cooperation, whereas Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar adopted a more cautious stance. The divergent responses reflect long‑standing intra‑Gulf rivalries and a growing skepticism toward an Israeli‑dominated security architecture, prompting many capitals to seek alternative partners such as Turkey, South Korea, Ukraine and Japan for arms and technology.

Looking ahead, Gulf states face a strategic crossroads. Reliance on U.S. guarantees is waning as Washington’s Israel‑centric policy appears increasingly out of step with regional priorities. To achieve genuine security autonomy, the Gulf Cooperation Council must overcome internal mistrust, share early‑warning data, and develop indigenous defense capabilities, especially in air‑defense. Simultaneously, diversification of diplomatic and commercial ties—ranging from European trade deals to cautious economic engagement with China—will give Gulf capitals leverage in negotiations with both Washington and Tehran, reshaping the Middle‑East security landscape for the next decade.