The Predatory Hegemon

Why It Matters

Trump’s predatory hegemony reshapes U.S. alliances and global trade, forcing partners to adapt to a more coercive American posture. Understanding this shift is crucial for policymakers navigating an increasingly unstable international order.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s strategy blends illiberal hegemony with forced reciprocity
• Trade wars exemplify predatory economic tactics
• Alliances pressured to match US defense spending
• Global order faces destabilizing unilateralism
• Scholars debate realism vs nationalism labels

Pulse Analysis

The debate over how to label Donald Trump’s foreign policy has intensified as scholars grapple with a mix of realism, nationalism, and mercantilism. Walt’s "predatory hegemon" framework captures the essence of a strategy that prioritizes American power while demanding reciprocal concessions from other nations. This perspective moves beyond traditional labels, suggesting that the administration’s actions are less about ideological consistency and more about leveraging coercive tools to extract benefits, a pattern evident in trade disputes and diplomatic negotiations.

In practice, predatory hegemony manifests through aggressive trade policies, such as tariffs on China and Europe, designed to force economic reciprocity on Washington’s terms. Simultaneously, the administration has pressed NATO allies to increase defense spending, using the promise of security as leverage. Military posturing, including heightened deployments in the Indo‑Pacific, reinforces a message that U.S. support is contingent on alignment with American strategic interests. These tactics illustrate a shift from multilateral cooperation toward a transactional, power‑centric approach.

The implications for the global order are profound. Allies must decide whether to acquiesce to heightened demands or seek alternative partnerships, potentially fracturing long‑standing security architectures. For U.S. policymakers, recognizing the predatory hegemonic pattern offers a roadmap for recalibrating engagement strategies that balance assertiveness with diplomatic stability. As the world adapts, the legacy of Trump’s second term will likely influence future American grand strategy, shaping how power is projected and negotiated on the international stage.

The Predatory Hegemon

How Trump Wields American Power · March/April 2026 · Published February 3, 2026

Ever since Donald Trump first became U.S. president, in 2017, commentators have searched for an adequate label to describe his approach to U.S. foreign relations. Writing in these pages, the political scientist Barry Posen suggested in 2018 that Trump’s grand strategy was “illiberal hegemony,” and the analyst Oren Cass argued last fall that its defining essence was a demand for “reciprocity.” Trump has been called a realist, a nationalist, an old‑fashioned mercantilist, an imperialist, and an isolationist. Each of these terms captures some aspects of his approach, but the grand strategy of his second presidential term is perhaps best

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Stephen M. Walt is Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School.