The State Of Play In The Middle East

Key Takeaways

• Iran-Israel ties broke after 1979 revolution.
• 2024‑25 strikes escalated shadow conflict to open war.
• June 2025 Twelve‑Day War failed regime‑change goals.
• US aims at Iran nuclear program amid China rivalry.
• Conflict costs may outweigh US strategic benefits.

Pulse Analysis

The Iran‑Israel relationship, once anchored in shared anti‑Soviet sentiment during the Cold War, unraveled after Tehran’s 1979 revolution. Since then, Iran has pursued a strategy of indirect confrontation, empowering proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis to challenge Israeli interests across the Levant. This proxy warfare created a persistent low‑intensity shadow conflict, allowing both capitals to avoid direct engagement while still influencing regional security calculations. Understanding this historical backdrop is essential for interpreting the rapid escalation that erupted in the mid‑2020s.

Between 2024 and early 2025, a cascade of retaliatory strikes and targeted assassinations pushed the shadow war into open confrontation. Iran responded to Israeli attacks on Iranian‑linked assets in Syria, Iraq, and within Iran itself, while Israel launched pre‑emptive raids to degrade perceived nuclear threats. The climax arrived in June 2025 with the twelve‑day campaign, a joint Israeli‑American operation intended to force regime change in Tehran and cripple its nuclear program. Although Netanyahu survived politically, the mission fell short of dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities and halted inspections, leaving strategic ambiguity.

The conflict now sits at the intersection of a broader US‑China rivalry, as Washington seeks to contain Beijing’s growing influence by pressuring Iran, a potential partner for Chinese infrastructure projects. Yet the escalating costs—military expenditures, regional destabilisation, and the risk of wider confrontation—may outweigh the perceived benefits of curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Policymakers must weigh whether a prolonged engagement will secure long‑term security or entrench a costly quagmire, while regional actors reassess alliances in a landscape where former allies have become adversaries.