To Lam’s Vietnam Drifting Perceptibly Closer to China

Why It Matters

The shift tightens Vietnam’s economic and security dependence on China, raising the stakes of U.S. tariff actions and threatening the country’s long‑standing strategic independence.

Key Takeaways

• To Lam’s dual role removes protocol friction, enabling direct talks with Beijing, Washington
• Vietnam and China launched a “3+3” strategic dialogue embedding security cooperation
• Vietnam‑China trade reached $256.4 billion in 2025, up 25% year‑on‑year
• US Section 301 investigation targets Vietnam’s excess manufacturing capacity and tariff risks
• Vietnam seeks diversification with Japan, Korea, India, EU, Australia to offset Beijing

Pulse Analysis

Vietnam’s foreign policy is at a crossroads as President‑General Secretary To Lam consolidates power. By holding both the party’s top post and the state presidency, he can negotiate with Beijing and Washington without the bureaucratic wrangling that hampered predecessors. The newly created “3+3” dialogue—linking foreign affairs, defense and public security ministries—signals a deeper security alignment with China, a move that could lock Hanoi into Beijing’s strategic calculus for years to come.

The economic dimension reinforces the political tilt. Bilateral trade with China hit a record $256.4 billion in 2025, a 25% jump that underscores Vietnam’s reliance on the Chinese market and supply chains. At the same time, the United States has opened a Section 301 probe into Vietnam’s excess manufacturing capacity, threatening tariffs that could erode the country’s “China‑plus‑one” appeal to foreign investors. The trade surplus with the U.S. remains sizable—$178 billion in 2025—but the looming tariff risk adds pressure on Hanoi to balance its commercial interests.

To preserve its strategic autonomy, Vietnam is accelerating diversification. Japan, South Korea, India, the EU and Australia are expanding aid, defense, and trade ties, offering alternatives to Beijing’s dominance. However, each partnership alone falls short of the scale China provides, making a coordinated multilateral approach essential. The success of this diversification will determine whether Vietnam can sustain its “bamboo diplomacy”—flexible, rooted independence—or whether structural drift toward China will become irreversible.