Warning Shots Off Yemen Underscore Ongoing Gulf of Aden Security Risks
•February 17, 2026
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Why It Matters
The episode highlights that even with reduced headline‑grabbing Houthi attacks, the broader western Indian Ocean remains a high‑risk zone for commercial shipping, affecting route planning and insurance costs.
Key Takeaways
- •Armed skiffs fired warning shots near Aden, Yemen.
- •Incident linked to local militia, not Houthi or pirates.
- •Gulf of Aden security remains volatile despite Red Sea lull.
- •MARAD reports rising hijackings and armed robberies in region.
- •Operators urged to follow Best Management Practices and coordinate.
Pulse Analysis
The recent encounter off Yemen’s coast illustrates how the Gulf of Aden’s threat landscape has evolved beyond traditional Somali piracy. A white skiff with five occupants, accompanied by two additional boats, approached a merchant vessel and exchanged small‑arms fire that was later clarified as warning shots. Analysts dismissed Houthi involvement, pointing to the area’s reputation for armed fishermen and local militias. This nuance matters because insurers and shippers often assess risk based on the perceived presence of state‑aligned actors, not the patchwork of smaller, opportunistic groups.
While the Red Sea has quieted after a 2025 cease‑fire between the Iran‑aligned Houthi movement and regional coalitions, the adjacent waters remain unsettled. U.S. Maritime Administration data show three hijackings and six armed‑robbery incidents since January 2025, with a noticeable uptick in firearms‑related attacks in the latter half of 2024. These figures suggest that the lull is localized; the broader western Indian Ocean continues to attract a mix of illicit actors, from smugglers to militia‑affiliated vessels, complicating threat modeling for global supply chains.
For ship operators, the incident serves as a practical reminder to maintain robust risk mitigation protocols. Best Management Practices—such as speed adjustments, convoy sailing, and real‑time reporting to UKMTO—remain essential tools. Coordination with regional naval forces and proactive intelligence sharing can reduce exposure to surprise encounters. As the industry gradually resumes Red Sea transits, a balanced approach that acknowledges lingering Gulf of Aden hazards will be critical for safeguarding cargo, crew safety, and financial performance.
Warning Shots Off Yemen Underscore Ongoing Gulf of Aden Security Risks
A merchant vessel transiting about 70 nautical miles southwest of Aden, Yemen reported an encounter with armed skiffs on Tuesday, briefly raising alarm before authorities downgraded the situation to “suspicious activity.”
According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the vessel was approached and hailed by a white skiff carrying five individuals. Two additional skiffs were reported nearby. An exchange of small arms fire followed, though UKMTO later clarified that only warning shots were fired and no weapons were directed at the merchant vessel. The incident was subsequently reclassified.
Initial analysis from Martin Kelly, Head of Advisory at EOS Risk Group, suggested the location made Houthi involvement unlikely and fell outside typical Somali piracy areas, noting the region is frequented by armed fishermen and smugglers. Yemen’s coastguard later identified the individuals as a “local militia,” effectively ruling out both Houthi militants and traditional piracy.
The incident highlights the complicated security picture in the western Indian Ocean. While large‑scale Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have largely subsided following a late‑2025 ceasefire tied to broader regional de‑escalation, tensions remain heightened. The Iran‑aligned group has issued periodic warnings that attacks on international shipping could resume if regional dynamics shift.
The incident comes as shipping lines are beginning to test Red Sea transits after two years of detouring around the Cape of Good Hope due to the Houthi threat.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD) continues to advise heightened vigilance across the Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean. In a February 9 advisory, MARAD reported three hijackings and six armed robbery or boarding incidents since January 2025, along with an uptick in firearms‑related attacks during the second half of last year. While no specific threats to U.S.-flag vessels are currently identified, piracy remains a persistent risk to commercial shipping in the region.
For operators, the incident serves as a reminder that even amid a relative lull in headline‑grabbing attacks, the operating environment remains fluid.
Vessels transiting the area are advised to maintain Best Management Practices, coordinate with regional naval forces, and report suspicious activity to UKMTO.
The Red Sea may be quieter for now — but the broader security risk picture in adjacent waters has not fully stabilized.
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