What if China Succeeds?

Why It Matters

The analysis highlights systemic risks to U.S. security, economic openness, and democratic norms, urging policymakers to counter a CCP‑driven world order before it solidifies.

Key Takeaways

• CCP success would dismantle U.S. security alliances across Asia
• Taiwan faces likely forced unification, sparking major regional war
• China’s “dual circulation” could fragment global trade into closed blocs
• PLA’s goal of a world‑class force threatens worldwide military balance
• Beijing’s tech dominance would lock global innovation behind authoritarian control

Pulse Analysis

The post‑World II liberal order, anchored by U.S. military alliances and open markets, has delivered unprecedented peace and prosperity. Yet the Chinese Communist Party’s definition of success—global dominance under an authoritarian model—directly challenges that framework. By 2049, Beijing aims to replace the existing alliance network with an “Asia for Asians” security architecture, eroding the U.S. presence that has deterred conflict for eight decades. Understanding this strategic divergence is essential for any nation assessing its long‑term security posture.

Security implications dominate Kroenig’s warning. A successful CCP would likely dissolve U.S. alliances in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, leaving these states vulnerable to Beijing’s coercive tactics. Taiwan, viewed as “inevitable” to be reclaimed, could become the flashpoint for a major war, testing U.S. credibility and potentially triggering broader nuclear proliferation as allies seek independent deterrents. Simultaneously, the People’s Liberation Army’s ambition to field a world‑class force threatens to reshape military balances not only in the Indo‑Pacific but across the globe, including the Western Hemisphere.

Economic and technological dimensions compound the threat. China’s “dual circulation” strategy seeks a self‑sufficient economy that forces other nations into dependent trade relationships, fragmenting the open global market the U.S. championed. In technology, Beijing’s push to dominate AI, quantum computing, and 5G under state‑controlled standards risks creating a parallel digital ecosystem where data flows to authoritarian surveillance apparatuses. This could curtail innovation, restrict access to critical technologies, and force firms worldwide to choose between open, democratic platforms and Beijing‑controlled alternatives. Policymakers must therefore craft coordinated strategies—reinforcing alliances, investing in resilient supply chains, and promoting democratic tech standards—to ensure the liberal order endures.