Who Wants Hezbollah to Stay Armed?

Why It Matters

Disarmament initiatives that ignore Lebanese citizens’ deep distrust of their state risk failure, limiting U.S. and Israeli strategies to curb Hezbollah’s military power.

Key Takeaways

• 45% of Lebanese oppose Hezbollah disarmament despite low political support
• Moral grievance against state predicts disarmament opposition, up 29 points
• Sectarian ties drive political loyalty, not disarmament attitudes
• Security fears increase support for Hezbollah’s weapons by 17 points
• Southern Lebanon and Bekaa show >70% disarmament resistance

Pulse Analysis

The Lebanese‑Israeli cease‑fire that began in March 2024 halted a wave of violence that had already claimed more than 2,500 lives and displaced over a million people. In the wake of the conflict, Beirut’s government launched its most ambitious disarmament plan since 1993, seizing weapons and deploying troops south of the Litani River. Yet the effort stalled as Israeli strikes intensified and public anger toward the state grew. Understanding why nearly half of the population resists Hezbollah’s disarmament is essential for any durable peace framework.

The XCEPT poll of 2,000 Lebanese shows a split between voting behavior and security views. Only 18 percent support Hezbollah politically, yet 45 percent oppose its disarmament. Moral grievance against a corrupt, unfair state—exacerbated by the 2020 port blast and banking collapse—drives this opposition more than sectarian ties. Those who feel personally threatened by Israel are 17 points more likely to want Hezbollah armed, highlighting the lingering security calculus in vulnerable communities.

Policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem have long relied on sanctions, aid conditionality, and the threat of force to curb Hezbollah’s firepower. The study suggests those levers miss the core grievance: a Lebanese state that has failed to earn public trust. Without credible reforms—transparent investigations of the port explosion, restitution for lost savings, and equitable service delivery—any external pressure on the militia is likely to be short‑lived. A sustainable solution therefore requires rebuilding state legitimacy, perhaps through a nationally‑backed security framework that can replace Hezbollah’s deterrent role while addressing citizens’ demand for justice and basic services.