Why There's More Talk of an AUKUS 'Plan B'

Why It Matters

A capability gap would leave Australia vulnerable during heightened regional tensions and could undermine the broader AUKUS security architecture, affecting billions of dollars of investment.

Key Takeaways

• Australia may need to extend Collins submarines $11 billion to 2040s
• US aims to double Virginia‑class output to 2.33/year, still lagging
• Japan diesel‑electric submarines proposed as lease stopgap for Australia
• Shadow minister suggests B‑21 bombers as alternative strike capability
• AUKUS project involves hundreds of billions of dollars across three continents

Pulse Analysis

The AUKUS submarine programme represents the most ambitious defence partnership in the Indo‑Pacific, tying together U.S. nuclear technology, British design expertise, and Australian industrial capacity. While the "optimal pathway" promises three Virginia‑class attack subs by 2032 and a home‑grown nuclear fleet by the early 2040s, the interim relies on extending the 30‑year‑old Collins fleet. That extension, budgeted at roughly $11 billion, is a stopgap that buys time but does not address the strategic risk of a capability vacuum if new boats are delayed.

U.S. shipyards currently produce just over one Virginia‑class submarine per year, far short of the 2.33 per year target needed to satisfy both domestic demand and Australian deliveries. Australia has already contributed about $2.75 billion to accelerate the U.S. industrial uplift, yet experts warn the production ramp‑up may not solidify until the mid‑2030s. This shortfall fuels concerns that the handover of a second‑hand Virginia‑class in 2032 could be postponed, leaving Canberra dependent on aging diesel‑electric platforms or interim arrangements.

Against this backdrop, Australian policymakers are openly debating "plan B" options. Proposals range from leasing modern diesel‑electric submarines from Japan—leveraging Japan’s annual production of advanced platforms—to acquiring B‑21 stealth bombers as a complementary strike capability. While the government stresses confidence in the AUKUS roadmap, the political push for contingencies highlights the high‑stakes nature of the project, where delays could jeopardise regional deterrence and involve hundreds of billions of dollars across three continents.